Read on Twitter
1.
Many people in WA are asking
if this UK variant was so infectious how come the 4PSheraton patient
(let’s call him WA Hero Guard)
did not spread B117 despite having a social life way better than mine?’
The B117 covid when in the wild will spread to around 3.4 people
/2
Many people in WA are asking
if this UK variant was so infectious how come the 4PSheraton patient
(let’s call him WA Hero Guard)
did not spread B117 despite having a social life way better than mine?’
The B117 covid when in the wild will spread to around 3.4 people
/2
2.
on AVERAGE from each patient if no masks, social distancing like in WA 2021.
The key is ‘on average’ but the variability is high. That means that of say 100 people infected most will infect less than 3. Many will infect none.
But SOME of the 100 will infect MANY.
/3
on AVERAGE from each patient if no masks, social distancing like in WA 2021.
The key is ‘on average’ but the variability is high. That means that of say 100 people infected most will infect less than 3. Many will infect none.
But SOME of the 100 will infect MANY.
/3
3.
These are the Super Spreaders who drag the average right up to 3.4.
When we hear that a positive B117 has been out and about we do not know if someone is a super spreader until we see what the damage is by testing to find out.
That’s why even low case numbers are scary.
/4
These are the Super Spreaders who drag the average right up to 3.4.
When we hear that a positive B117 has been out and about we do not know if someone is a super spreader until we see what the damage is by testing to find out.
That’s why even low case numbers are scary.
/4
4
It is not covid virus that makes the person a ‘super’ spreader or not, it is the person (like WA Hero Guard) whose body does not ‘leak’ much virus that makes the difference.
Personal habits affect spread but less than whether u are a very big or very small virus leaker.
/5
It is not covid virus that makes the person a ‘super’ spreader or not, it is the person (like WA Hero Guard) whose body does not ‘leak’ much virus that makes the difference.
Personal habits affect spread but less than whether u are a very big or very small virus leaker.
/5
5.
The big leaking super spreaders drive a lot of outbreaks, so
- we go HARD against low numbers of cases
- we HATE crowded gatherings of large numbers - where a super spreader can lead to 20, 50, 100 cases (eg Trump’s garden party)
- we see covid often being patchy
/6
The big leaking super spreaders drive a lot of outbreaks, so
- we go HARD against low numbers of cases
- we HATE crowded gatherings of large numbers - where a super spreader can lead to 20, 50, 100 cases (eg Trump’s garden party)
- we see covid often being patchy
/6
6.
So when WA Hero Guard was diagnosed if we KNEW he was NOT a big spreader then we could have reasonably waited.
But we cant know that til later, so our Premier was faced with - do I roll the dice and see if we lose?
Looking around the world, with vaccine not far off,
/7
So when WA Hero Guard was diagnosed if we KNEW he was NOT a big spreader then we could have reasonably waited.
But we cant know that til later, so our Premier was faced with - do I roll the dice and see if we lose?
Looking around the world, with vaccine not far off,
/7
7.
& so much to lose a precautionary approach is sensible.
We dont have many sensible leaders in the world - but Mark McGowan (advised on this by CHO Andy Robertson) is one of them.
Short lockdown good.
Masks good.
WA hero guard good.
Public cooperation amazing.
/8
& so much to lose a precautionary approach is sensible.
We dont have many sensible leaders in the world - but Mark McGowan (advised on this by CHO Andy Robertson) is one of them.
Short lockdown good.
Masks good.
WA hero guard good.
Public cooperation amazing.
/8
8.
What can we improve?
Hotel Quarantine so we can avoid this
Acceptance that covid can be airborne like smoke esp indoors.
But that’s all for another thread.
Let’s hope for ZERO today - well done WA.
A digestible story on the maths of spreaders: https://news.mit.edu/2020/super-spreading-covid-transmission-1102
What can we improve?
Hotel Quarantine so we can avoid this
Acceptance that covid can be airborne like smoke esp indoors.
But that’s all for another thread.
Let’s hope for ZERO today - well done WA.
A digestible story on the maths of spreaders: https://news.mit.edu/2020/super-spreading-covid-transmission-1102
PS even if you only infect one more person - that one could turn out to be a super spreader, so we have to all work hard to avoid any Spread to extinguish EVERY cluster.
Using social distancing, masks, hygiene, fresh air, reduced gatherings makes all the difference.
Using social distancing, masks, hygiene, fresh air, reduced gatherings makes all the difference.
