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$CLOV DD thread 
Price at time of writing $12.46
Investor presentation: https://images.app.goo.gl/YwZExymbqsjMz8GW9
Price at time of writing $12.46
Investor presentation: https://images.app.goo.gl/YwZExymbqsjMz8GW9
- Medicare advantage insurer.
- Their plans offer rich supplemental benefits with low out-of-pocket expenses.
- Medicare advantage currently applies to over 65s and anyone with a disability incl under 65s.
- Developed "Clover Assistant" software which they give to physicians.
- Their plans offer rich supplemental benefits with low out-of-pocket expenses.
- Medicare advantage currently applies to over 65s and anyone with a disability incl under 65s.
- Developed "Clover Assistant" software which they give to physicians.
- TAM in 2019 was $270bn
- Projected to grow to $590bn by 2025
- Overall Medicare market expected to be $1.25tn by 2025.
- 10,000 new baby boomers joining Medicare every day
- Massive increase in TAM if President Biden lowers age requirement from 65 down to 60.
- Projected to grow to $590bn by 2025
- Overall Medicare market expected to be $1.25tn by 2025.
- 10,000 new baby boomers joining Medicare every day
- Massive increase in TAM if President Biden lowers age requirement from 65 down to 60.
- Provide physicians with Clover assistant software and sign up incentives to recruit members indirectly.
- Partnership with Walmart to make joint Clover-Walmart plans available to 1/2 million people in 8 Georgia counties.
- Partnership with Walmart to make joint Clover-Walmart plans available to 1/2 million people in 8 Georgia counties.
Cost structure ~5% of membership account for 40% costs. Complex care savings retained by Clover.
Eligible members are identified immediately via a closed loop system.
Asset-light, software-driven care.
Eligible members are identified immediately via a closed loop system.
Asset-light, software-driven care.
Comparison of out-of-pocket costs:
Established markets position
*Refers to markets where Clover has >500 members, this is 13/34 counties.
Top 3 market share position in each one.
Consistently taking market share from UnitedHealth, CVS/Athena and Horizon BCBS.
8% market share in ALL markets.
*Refers to markets where Clover has >500 members, this is 13/34 counties.
Top 3 market share position in each one.
Consistently taking market share from UnitedHealth, CVS/Athena and Horizon BCBS.
8% market share in ALL markets.
As of June 2020:
- Clover had 57,000 members
- Operations in 34 counties
In 2021:
- Increase to 73,000 members
- Operations in 108 counties
By 2023:
- Increase to 138,871 members
- Operations in 219 counties
- Clover had 57,000 members
- Operations in 34 counties
In 2021:
- Increase to 73,000 members
- Operations in 108 counties
By 2023:
- Increase to 138,871 members
- Operations in 219 counties
Management Team plus @chamath
Lee Shapiro also added to board on 22nd Dec 2020 (7wireVentures, Livongo Health, Allscripts, Medidata, ConsejoSano, Medisafe, and HomeThrive)
Lee Shapiro also added to board on 22nd Dec 2020 (7wireVentures, Livongo Health, Allscripts, Medidata, ConsejoSano, Medisafe, and HomeThrive)
Revenue growth YoY:
2019 = 29%
2020 = 45%
2021 = 31%
2022 = 39%
2023 = 41%
CAGR = 37%
Gross margin expected to increase from 4.1% to 16.3% (2018 - 2023).
Profitable in Q2 2020.
Positive adj EBITDA (closest indicator of FCF) projected in 2023.
Target >30% member growth.
2019 = 29%
2020 = 45%
2021 = 31%
2022 = 39%
2023 = 41%
CAGR = 37%
Gross margin expected to increase from 4.1% to 16.3% (2018 - 2023).
Profitable in Q2 2020.
Positive adj EBITDA (closest indicator of FCF) projected in 2023.
Target >30% member growth.
