Quick coronavirus vaccine thread.

So yesterday, I created a model based on previously publicly available info from the federal government and vaccine companies on how many Utahns might get the vaccine and when. I had three scenarios: pessimistic, average, and optimistic. 1/6
Today, @SpencerJCox released the state's projection estimates on when Utah will get more vaccine and when, based on unreleased info from the fed. gov. Those projection estimates deliver SIGNIFICANTLY more vaccine than even my most optimistic scenario. 2/6
So, for example, Cox said that, in March, we'd get 195K doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines per week. My previous optimistic model said we'd get 120K per week.

For J&J vax, he said about 33K per week, beginning early March. My opt. projections said 18K per week. 3/6
Cox also even gave out AstraZeneca vax numbers! You can't even find AZ numbers from the UK, where they're actually currently injecting the vaccine.

He said Utah could get 84K doses per week starting sometime in April. That would be huge. 4/6
My estimates were sound... based on quality reporting of the fed. gov.'s contracts with vaccine manufacturers.

But based on these estimates, it sounds like the fed. gov. now believes that the manufacturers will exceed their obligations, delivering more vaccine faster. 5/6
I'll have an article come out soon with this model of mine — and a new most optimistic scenario. (Along with the pessimistic ones.) If we hit Cox's numbers or even come close... it's pretty remarkable, and you'll get the vaccine sooner than you think. 6/6
You can follow @andyblarsen.
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