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Myanmar’s coup is a disaster for Myanmar, but it also is a signifier of the continuing regression of democracy region-wide in Southeast Asia. The region, which once had made significant progress toward democratization, has backslid badly in recent years. 1/
Myanmar’s coup is a disaster for Myanmar, but it also is a signifier of the continuing regression of democracy region-wide in Southeast Asia. The region, which once had made significant progress toward democratization, has backslid badly in recent years. 1/
This backsliding affects not only domestic politics in Southeast Asian states but also has an effect on other countries in the region—a kind of diffusion effect in reverse. 2/
For example, the Philippines used to be one of the ASEAN states that often vocally stood up for democratic rights in other countries, a fairly unique stance in ASEAN. Now led by Rodrigo Duterte, however, Manila is much quieter on the Myanmar coup. 3/
Thailand, for all its challenges, did sometimes have groups of politicians and civil society activists who were highly engaged in Myanmar politics and advocated for reform there. 4/
Now, Thailand is cracking down on civil society, students, activists, opposition politicians, and the Thai government is not going to push for any change in Myanmar. 5/
If anything, the Myanmar generals may try to steal a march from the Thai generals, as Bertil Lintner noted in a recent Asia Times article:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/how-myanmars-generals-will-seek-to-sell-the-coup/ 6/
https://asiatimes.com/2021/02/how-myanmars-generals-will-seek-to-sell-the-coup/ 6/
The Myanmar generals may eventually, as he notes, allow an election, but with a system that, like the Thai electoral system, uses machinations to reduce the power of the most powerful parties—the NLD in this case—and to promote the military’s favored parties and its allies. 7/
Meanwhile, other countries that had led on Myanmar in the past, like Indonesia and Malaysia, have been relatively quiet, consumed by their own domestic politics, COVID-19, and have suffered their own democratic regression. 8/
And, powerful actors in Southeast Asia, like Japan, also have said little; Japanese companies appear to be slowly restarting their activities in Myanmar. 9/
Japan sees itself in intense competition for strategic influence with China in Myanmar, and is unlikely to push the Myanmar military much. 10/
So, the regional democratic regression emboldens the Myanmar military, and also makes it easier for them to keep power. 11/11
