Some Italian papers are talking abt the right wing coalition "breaking up", since the parties within it have different positions abt Draghi. Nothing is further from the truth. This is the usual good cop/ bad cop routine they have adopted many times before-which benefits them all.

The facts. Berlusconi has consistently asked for a "Government staffed by the best" to lead the country. Taking part allows him to influence allocation of the goodies of the Recovery Plan, election of next President, while fostering the image that -incredibly- Italian media...

...are unquestioningly perpetuating: that he is a "moderate", "anti-populist", pro-European & some sort of father figure who has de facto become almost super partes now.

This move helps him occupy this niche in view of the next election. It's only 7/8/9% of the electorate?

Possibly, but it's all that he needs to be the king maker & he has taken ownership of it very effectively.

Meloni was always going to say no. As I have repeated many times, none of the recent developments are about policies. Draghi could adopt a programme written by Brothers of Italy & she'd still say no. I think she is absolutely right in doing so.

This way, she keeps occupying a space that she already owns: the clearly right wing, uncompromising, "pure" niche within the coalition. Credibility is very important, & party she can realistically gain most votes from in near future remains the League. So she hammers the League.

I had been wondering what Salvini would do. The League still aims to represent the rich areas of diffuse industrialisation of northern Italy, the exporting powerhouse. Their view -voiced by League's n. 2, Giorgetti -is that a govt led by Draghi, which reassures the markets &...

... can credibly & efficiently distribute the cash that is coming Italy's way to help kick-start the economy is in many ways a good thing. & the League would also like to be in the room when names of the next President are discussed.

However, there is a problem & it's called Giorgia M. The League's recent statement: Draghi has to choose bwt us & M5S strongly suggests they are going for option B. As Renzi has shown us very clearly in recent days, when you do not want something to happen, set the bar too high.

If the various Giorgetti and co. do not manage to force Salvini to u-turn (which is possible), they will have made the right choice - in my view. Much better for them to stay outside the tent pissing in.

Easier for Draghi, too, incidentally. Forza Italia allows him to claim that his govt is fundamentally different from previous one, more of a "unity govt", hence "new". & he does not need to mediate btw Free & Equal on the left of the PD & Salvini.

The bottom line -which too many journos forget- is that, whatever happens in between, these three (and/or their predecessors) have ALWAYS come back together before a general election because - unlike their opponents- they have a clear idea re their identities, what they want &...

...how to get there.

The only exception to this unity rule (since 1994, hence since the coalition was put together) was the 1996 election.

No matter how much they will be seen to disagree over the next 2 years, unless someone decides that it's not in their interest to renew the coalition (e.g. League + Meloni may decide that Berlusconi is no longer needed, given the polls) they will come back together yet again.