New TTC report recommends shutting down the Scarborough RT in 2023. Keeping it running to 2023 would cost $275 million. Two options under consideration for 2023 shutdown scenario: buying new buses in 2023/2024, or using existing bus fleet til 2027. https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Commission_reports_and_information/Commission_meetings/2021/February_10/Reports/9_SRT_Life_Extension_Project_Options_Analysis.pdf (PDF)

The challenge with the Scarborough RT: originally the TTC was going to retire these trains in 2012. That got pushed back to 2015, then pushed back AGAIN to 2026, but even that wouldn’t coincide with expected opening date of Scarborough Subway. (2030ish)

The Scarborough RT fleet has trouble dealing with both summer and winter weather which is… not ideal, with this city’s climate.

At current rate of decline, Scarborough RT trains would be seeing significant delays related to vehicle reliability about 4 times per week in 2026.

One reason why an SRT overhaul to extend operations until 2030 isn’t really an option worth pursuing, even if Council found the $$$: service would be reduced until 2024 to do vehicle upgrades, so keeping the SRT means reduced service for ~3 years. (Corrected tweet.)

Replacing the SRT with buses will increase travel times between Scarborough Centre and Kennedy by 50% to 80%, with a 10 minute riding taking up to 18 minutes. (TTC tries to put a positive spin on it, by pointing to time savings from not having to transfer from bus to SRT.)

“Overall, the bus service plan is expected to decrease ridership on the SRT corridor in 2023. These changes are largely due to the resultant increase in travel time for all customers, and the less reliable transfer between bus services at Scarborough Centre Station.”

The TTC looked at buying Vancouver’s old SkyTrain vehicles for the SRT, but Vancouver’s vehicles are also old and not available until 2023. Too late.

Similarly, buying newer versions of SRT trains also won’t work, as changes to the vehicle design mean they wouldn’t work on the existing tracks. Not worth it for a few extra years of service, says the report.

Interesting: TTC’s been talking to Metrolinx about this whole Scarborough RT thing, and Metrolinx raised the idea of using GO buses for the replacement service. Report says that’s not required, but seems like an idea worth pursuing, especially if Metrolinx pays.

In conclusion: what a damn mess. If your councillor, mayor, MPP or MP ever publicly supported the Scarborough Subway, maybe send them a note today, reminding them that this is on them. They did this.

Quick addendum to this tweet: this table shows ADDITIONAL funding needed for each option, factoring in capital funds already available. Total cost would be $522.4 million to keep SRT versus $357 million - $375 million for 2023 bus replacement options. https://twitter.com/GraphicMatt/status/1357377978704007170