This, I think, is the key passage in @jbview's piece on the 2024 calendar. 1/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-04/it-s-not-too-early-to-think-about-the-2024-race

I again mentioned that stability/certainty issue in an Iowa post the other day (after Harry Reid raised it in a recent WSJ item), but that point about discounted results is so so important. 2/
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2021/02/iowa-will-not-go-gentle-into-that-good.html

If party actors are going to discount IA/NH because they don't match the primary electorate, then there is an argument that leaving the two states where they are and "ignoring" the results is a potentially viable option. 3/

Over time, candidates and the media will learn to shrug off the results and focus on candidate activity in the states perceived to matter. Of course, for the national parties, "fighting the last battle" can be something of a sirens' call to action. 4/

And as a postscript to all of this I'll add that, yes, everyone is understandably suffering from 2020 fatigue and resistant to talking about 2024. However, 2024 is happening. Quietly and largely invisibly, but it is still happening.

...and some of us are documenting that. 5/5