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Latest PHE weekly COVID surveillance report, covers 25th to 31st January.
Cases, admissions, deaths all falling; vaccination numbers rising.
Signs are good but ICU admission rates are still double that seen in the first wave. We're not there yet.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports
Cases, admissions, deaths all falling; vaccination numbers rising.
Signs are good but ICU admission rates are still double that seen in the first wave. We're not there yet.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports
Case rates are falling in all ages and all regions.
The percentage of PCR tests coming back positive (positivity) is also now clearly falling in in pillar 1 (NHS/PHE labs for health care workers and those in clinical need), as well as pillar 2 (community testing).
The percentage of PCR tests coming back positive (positivity) is also now clearly falling in in pillar 1 (NHS/PHE labs for health care workers and those in clinical need), as well as pillar 2 (community testing).
And for those who like to squint, I really like the chart from PHE showing case rates by age and region.
For example, it shows that 0-9 yr olds track along the bottom and 20-29 yr olds along the top throughout this wave.
For example, it shows that 0-9 yr olds track along the bottom and 20-29 yr olds along the top throughout this wave.
However, the regional data mask important variation by local authority.
Particularly in parts of the NW, West Midlands, and London.
Particularly in parts of the NW, West Midlands, and London.
As case rates fall, important inequalities by ethnicity and deprivation remain.
This is my favourite chart this week.
As case rates drop and more people are getting vaccinated, some signs that the huge burden on care homes may be easing.
The number of incidents/outbreaks known to be due to COVID has nearly halved since last week.
As case rates drop and more people are getting vaccinated, some signs that the huge burden on care homes may be easing.
The number of incidents/outbreaks known to be due to COVID has nearly halved since last week.
The number of incidents in hospitals has also dropped...
...but this isn't the case in schools and workplaces despite falling cases rates.
Hospital admission rates have also well and truly peaked in all regions and all ages.
But admission rates are still around *50% higher* than admission rates at the peak of the second wave in early November.
But admission rates are still around *50% higher* than admission rates at the peak of the second wave in early November.
We're now past the peak in ICU admissions as well, but note how much this is driven by London and NW. In West Mids ICU admissions are still rising.
Plus admission rates are still *double* the peak of the second wave in Nov.
Plus admission rates are still *double* the peak of the second wave in Nov.
Worth noting the drop in ICU admissions may not be as fast as the fall in hospital admissions as empty beds are filled by people who should really have been on ICU but were being managed on wards, and because people are generally younger and outside of priority vax cohorts.
Finally, deaths also look to have largely peaks at last.
Although the daily death count remains upsettingly high and excess mortality is stark.
Although the daily death count remains upsettingly high and excess mortality is stark.
In more positive news, the vaccine roll-out continues to race along, and we now have trial confirmation that the Ox/AZ vaccine also reduces spread as well as disease severity.
Hopefully it will all act to accelerate the fall in case numbers, admissions, and deaths.
Hopefully it will all act to accelerate the fall in case numbers, admissions, and deaths.
In the meantime, hospitals remain under enormous strain.
Please continue to help by staying a home as much as possible, getting tested if symptomatic, isolating when necessary, and asking for help when things are difficult - neighbours, friends, family, and your local gov.
Please continue to help by staying a home as much as possible, getting tested if symptomatic, isolating when necessary, and asking for help when things are difficult - neighbours, friends, family, and your local gov.
