The veteran French diplomat @MrjDuclos believes that the contacts established by France during its two-year dialogue with Russia may be useful to mediate between the Kremlin and the Biden administration. In this context, Duclos calls for EU-US coordination on Russia. 1/6 https://twitter.com/MrjDuclos/status/1357304567558471681
It seems that such coordination is necessary indeed but in order to save the EU from strategic loneliness towards Russia and from the progressive decay of its external action as a result of Germany's and France's disregard of the security interests of Central Europe. 2/6
As the example of New START shows, Putin does not need Mr. Vimont's mediation if he wants to reach an agreement with the US. It's been West's tolerance to corruption and aggression of the Kremlin that has convinced Putin to bribe Europe rather than to negotiate with it. 3/6
The helplessness of Germany and France in the Normandy Format is particularly acute, where Ukraine sometimes seems to grapple with not one, but three adversaries. The US joining this format seems to be an absolute necessity. 4/6
A temptation to "decouple" Russia from China, idea toyed also by @SecBlinken, is an anachronism. Since 2012, Putin has embarked on a course towards China and CIS, as he knows that Russia's real rapprochement with the West will erode his power. That's why Medvedev was fired. 5/6
Thus, the only realistic policy of bringing the West closer to Russia is to reassure Putin's entourage that they are losing more than gaining in keeping him in power. More sanctions and military build-up needed. 6/6
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