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The Republican backlash to @POTUS's stimulus bill will occur regardless of the substance or the overall amount. It will be a backlash against a Democratic president—not a backlash against the particulars of the bill./1
This is why @POTUS can’t make bipartisanship his main objective. The priority must be an effective stimulus that strengthens the economy and provides relief. Given how the House GOP has dealt with @mtgreenee, POTUS should realize how radicalized his opponents have become./2
And this has been a long time in the making. I wrote about this in my new book, looking at Newt Gingrich's formidable role in the party since the 1980s./3 https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/318517/burning-down-the-house-by-julian-e-zelizer/
Importantly, history shows that the window any new president has for legislating is incredibly short. Even much of the Great Society took place within the span of two years. Before presidents know it, midterm election politics start to kick in and Capitol Hill grinds to a halt./4
In other words, Biden’s opportunity for legislating is right now. Elevating bipartisanship is a huge mistake, particularly with a Republican Party that has been hellbent on obstruction. Unless Biden agrees to undermine the bill, winning their support is a fool’s errand./5
As @BarackObama learned, the odds for sizable GOP support on major legislation or for preventing a backlash are minimal./6 https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691160283/the-presidency-of-barack-obama
More likely, Biden would make huge and destructive concessions only to end up experiencing one more replay of the famous Charlie Brown and Lucy football scene./7
Politically, the best bet for Biden is to obtain passage of robust legislation that strengthens our economy and starts the long process of rebuilding the social fabric of the nation. Through the reconciliation process, Biden can do this without the GOP./8
If Democrats decide to eliminate the filibuster, then much more would be possible since the party would not be limited to using the inefficient mechanism of reconciliation. @ezraklein has a great piece on this subject in today's @nytimes./9 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/opinion/democrats-senate-reconciliation.html
A big stimulus/relief bill, combined with a successful vaccine rollout and Covid containment policies, will do more than anything to put Biden in a position of strength. In the long-run, that’s the best bet for winning over whatever Republican support that actually exists./end
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