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#ARB @ArgoBlockchain really going from strength to strength.
In the most basic of terms, using January production numbers and assuming no move in $BTC price / network hash rate / mining difficulty over the next five months:
~645 petahash in January generated 93 BTC.
1/8
In the most basic of terms, using January production numbers and assuming no move in $BTC price / network hash rate / mining difficulty over the next five months:
~645 petahash in January generated 93 BTC.
1/8
Going into July, #ARB's total installed power will be ~1,685 petahash. That would generate 243 $BTC, under January conditions.
Using Jan's gross margin of 71%, and the current bitcoin price of $37.5k, we're looking at gross profit of $6.5m pm on revs of $9.1m pm. 2/8
Using Jan's gross margin of 71%, and the current bitcoin price of $37.5k, we're looking at gross profit of $6.5m pm on revs of $9.1m pm. 2/8
That's an annual run-rate of $109m / $78m.
Working on:
- $2m for central G&A;
- Assumed liquid assets of $40m;
- USD to GBP - 0.74
- TVR: 359m
- SP: 94p
I calculate #ARB will be trading on a forward EV/EBITDA (from 1 July) of ~5.5x.
Is that cheap, expensive or fair? 3/8
Working on:
- $2m for central G&A;
- Assumed liquid assets of $40m;
- USD to GBP - 0.74
- TVR: 359m
- SP: 94p
I calculate #ARB will be trading on a forward EV/EBITDA (from 1 July) of ~5.5x.
Is that cheap, expensive or fair? 3/8
So many factors to consider:
- Is $BTC going higher (YES IMO, especially now that @elonmusk has converted)?
- Which will run higher, faster - mining difficulty, or BTC price? #ARB's competitive advantage has always been its ultra-low cost, and thus industry-leading margins. 4/8
- Is $BTC going higher (YES IMO, especially now that @elonmusk has converted)?
- Which will run higher, faster - mining difficulty, or BTC price? #ARB's competitive advantage has always been its ultra-low cost, and thus industry-leading margins. 4/8
- Life (and depreciation) of machines? Critical in understanding FCF, and thus EPS and ultimately DPS. EBITDA is all well and good in the hyper-growth phase, but (many) shareholders will ultimately want consistent divis.
- By how much will #ARB's margins further improve... 5/8
- By how much will #ARB's margins further improve... 5/8
...with the acquisition of the two data centres, as well as increased number of rigs?
- What percentage of its monthly $BTC production will #ARB keep in treasury?
All in all, it's impossible to forecast. If one believes that crypto (esp. $BTC) is in a bull market, then... 6/8
- What percentage of its monthly $BTC production will #ARB keep in treasury?
All in all, it's impossible to forecast. If one believes that crypto (esp. $BTC) is in a bull market, then... 6/8
@ArgoBlockchain #ARB's current forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x is absurdly cheap.
N.B. one doesn't have to truly believe in the longevity of crypto - the thesis of decentralising currencies - to take the trade. Just that $BTC is still at the early stages of a raging... 7/8
N.B. one doesn't have to truly believe in the longevity of crypto - the thesis of decentralising currencies - to take the trade. Just that $BTC is still at the early stages of a raging... 7/8
..bull market!
Whatever the case, IMO #ARB still offers a much more leveraged play on $BTC than holding the currency itself, even after its dramatic SP move over the past two months.
If $BTC goes to $75k, you can be sure @ArgoBlockchain is going much, much higher than 190p! 8/8
Whatever the case, IMO #ARB still offers a much more leveraged play on $BTC than holding the currency itself, even after its dramatic SP move over the past two months.
If $BTC goes to $75k, you can be sure @ArgoBlockchain is going much, much higher than 190p! 8/8
