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I hope to do a mini-thread with a bit more detail about Pirates’ creativity — or lack thereof in recent weeks.
Their attack is comfortably top 2 or 3 based on shots, chances created, expected goals etc. but that is largely because of their relatively good performances at the...
Their attack is comfortably top 2 or 3 based on shots, chances created, expected goals etc. but that is largely because of their relatively good performances at the...
... beginning of the season, when the likes of Sundowns hadn’t quite found their feet yet.
They were creating around 7 chances per game on average in their first 10 games, but that’s now down to ≈5.2 in the last 10, and a little over 3 chances per game in their last 4 games.
They were creating around 7 chances per game on average in their first 10 games, but that’s now down to ≈5.2 in the last 10, and a little over 3 chances per game in their last 4 games.
Took this shot map from InStat: G = goal, • = on target, x = off.
They were taking ≈13 shots per game their first 10 games & from relatively good locations (i.e. where the probability of scoring is relatively high). Also, most (≥55%) of their penalty box shots were on target.
They were taking ≈13 shots per game their first 10 games & from relatively good locations (i.e. where the probability of scoring is relatively high). Also, most (≥55%) of their penalty box shots were on target.
Their average shots per game has dropped to 10 in the last 10 games and most of their shots have been put wide.
It looks like they have also tended to take shots slightly further away from goal – or from relatively bad locations – in recent times.
It looks like they have also tended to take shots slightly further away from goal – or from relatively bad locations – in recent times.
They were averaging around 1.71 expected goals (xG) per game in their opening 10 matches. That’s now down to 1.39 in the last 10 games, and 0.85 in the last 5.
This decline in xG is, by and large, due to a decline in both the volume of shots and quality of shots in recent games.
This decline in xG is, by and large, due to a decline in both the volume of shots and quality of shots in recent games.
The decline in their attacking output has been exacerbated by their relative wastefulness in front of goal. I posted this viz, which includes all matches prior-TS Galaxy, after Pirates’ draw with TS Galaxy.
Now, I’m not a fan of JZ at all but I felt... https://twitter.com/mba_lm/status/1354408929338515458?s=19
Now, I’m not a fan of JZ at all but I felt... https://twitter.com/mba_lm/status/1354408929338515458?s=19
... that he probably had a point about the lack of a natural striker in his side.
Pirates created 5 chances and had 10 shots (but just 2 on target) that night. Admittedly, they weren’t high quality shots (0.9xG) but they outperformed TS Galaxy in all attacking stats...
Pirates created 5 chances and had 10 shots (but just 2 on target) that night. Admittedly, they weren’t high quality shots (0.9xG) but they outperformed TS Galaxy in all attacking stats...
... including expected points (xPts) – 1.5 for Pirates, 0.5 for TSG. So they created reasonably enough to get more than a point from that game but poor finishing let them down.
As good as they are Lorch, Hotto et al., they aren’t particularly renowned for goal scoring prowess.
As good as they are Lorch, Hotto et al., they aren’t particularly renowned for goal scoring prowess.
All being well and time permitting, I will do a deep-dive and look at the numbers to see if I can work out wether, from a statistically point of view, this is just a normal dip in form or Pirates fans should seriously concerned.
Personally, at this point in time, I think Pirates will be fine. But I concede that *sometimes* my views are more likely to be influenced by statistics (or susceptible to statistical bias) more than what I see when watching matches. So please don’t drag me if they get worse! 
