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Meanwhile, things are on the move in #Casamance, southern Senegal, where a separatist rebellion, the #MFDC began in 1982. A thread… The situation has been one of “no peace no war” for the past 15 years at least. https://tinyurl.com/yxthyev8
Senegalese troops are moving in against Kompass, leader of the MFDC faction southeast of regional capital Ziguinchor, who has been more restless of late than the other factions... Reports are that Kompass has vacated at least three major bases, Sinkoun, Camp 2 and Camp 9.
Apparently, Umaru Sissoco Embalo, now firmly in power in neighbouring Guinea-Bissau, gave greenlight to Senegal for pursuits into Bissau-Guinean territory. Interestingly, Senegal backed Sissoco’s rise to power against PAIGC. He is now asked to "deliver".
One may recall that the troops of Guinea-Bissau moved decisively against another MFDC faction, that of Salif Sadio, in 2001 and 2006 at moments when Senegal was patronising the political and military leadership in Bissau. https://tinyurl.com/y4dxavuc
I am hearing that not everyone in the Bissau-Guinean army is too keen, though. There have long been links between the MFDC and the BG military, even if Dakar has developed its own connections in the BG military.
Also, Dakar has been beefing up its military budget & gear since last big offensive on MFDC in early 2000s. Maybe Senegalese military want to give it another try, all the more as MFDC has weakened (note also that with Jammeh down, Dakar has a loyal client in Banjul these days).
Also, Dakar has been clearly looking in the direction of the Malian border, beefing up its military presence there. Maybe they feel that they cannot afford to have even a smallish abscess like the MFDC in their south when they have to look east.
Senegal has reasons to worry. Malian jihadi are pushing in the direction of the border. And some say that the Senegalese #BokoHaram associates arrested in Niger & Senegal were hoping to start a guerrilla in Eastern Senegal/Upper Casamance. https://tinyurl.com/y2b2uwe9
For background on the MFDC, you can check out this https://tinyurl.com/yypo59fl or that https://tinyurl.com/y5rxz3zt
Perhaps I should add that geography matters a lot in this. the offensive for now is focused on Kompass, in the southeast of Ziguinchor. In the south and southwest of Ziguinchor, where another MFDC faction is based, under the command of César Badiate, things are calm (for now?)
And things are reportedly calm also for the MFDC factions in the north of Casamance, along the Gambian border.
So is it an isolated offensive against the MFDC faction which is the most virulent these days? Is it also about sending a signal to the others? Is more in the works? Important turn, in any case.
