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I was fortunate to captain Fernandes for his #FPL points haul in Gameweek 22, but I was mildly terrified of not owning Salah when his effective ownership would exceed 100% (it was 151.5%). Given I could have bought him with 1 free transfer, what were the stats that stopped me?
Had I bought Salah, I probably would have captained him, so there was an element of luck in the armband going to Fernandes. Part of the issue with Salah was who to sell. I didn't want to lose anyone from my midfield of Fernandes, Son, Grealish, Gundogan and Soucek. 2/12
With 11.5 in the bank, I could have sold Soucek for Salah, but I wanted the Czech player for Fulham in GW23. If I transferred Son out for Salah, it would have likely been reversed for GW23. At best that was 2 free transfers burned, at worst it could have meant a hit. 3/12
So, effectively, even if Son or Soucek did nothing, I would want Salah to score at least a brace to make the move worth attempting. Was that likely? Well, Salah did it the week before - doubling my overall rank in the process - so I had been burned and was wary of the risk. 4/12
I wasn't doubting Salah's scoring abilities. Where my doubt lay was in how defensively vulnerable Brighton were. The Seagulls conceded 3 to Chelsea, 3 to Manchester United and 4 to Everton. But those games were in the first four weeks of the season. 5/12
Since GW4, they have conceded 3 on only two occasions; against Leicester in GW12 and against Wolves in GW17. Their tighter games included Liverpool at home and Manchester City away (both 1 goal), as well as Spurs at home as part of a 3 game clean sheet streak prior to GW22. 6/12
I felt Brighton might not be as much of a pushover as popular perception perceived them to be. So I checked their underlying stats and what I saw surprised me. It also made me hold off buying (and captaining) Salah. 7/12
Prior to GW22, Brighton were the fourth best team in the Premier League for goal attempts conceded, goal attempts in box conceded and expected goals conceded. In that sense, it was unsurprising that they had only conceded 1.1 goals per game since those first 4 matches. 8/12
Apart from West Bromwich Albion at one extreme and Manchester City at the other, everyone else is within 9 goals conceded of Brighton. So, in that sense, a game against Brighton was little more promising for an attacker than a game against Manchester United (29GA vs 27GA). 9/12
And Brighton's six clean sheets (prior to GW22) put them level with Tottenham and Liverpool. Would you bring in Salah specifically to captain him against Jose Mourinho's Tottenham? No, I wouldn't either. 10/12
The stats showed avoiding Salah carried risks beyond his effective ownership though. Brighton had conceded 7 penalties prior to GW22 - more than any team other than Wolves (also 7). If Liverpool won a penalty there was a good chance Salah would take it. 11/12
Seeing Brighton's defensive stats, I decided to risk going without Salah in GW22 knowing he could punish me as he had in GW21. But in #FPL you have to consider the cost of the move as well as the potential returns and the upside didn't look promising enough so I held off. 12/12
