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So, how are we doing with covid? Nationally, reported incidence has fallen from around 76 cases per 100,000 population per day to about 43. Better! But not yet good. Thresholds are contentious, but I think 20 as a first goal and 10 as a second goal are reasonable to start. 1/
Nationally, those thresholds correspond to approx. 66,000 and 33,000 daily cases, respectively. Right now, we’re at ~140,000 cases reported each day on average, so we need to more than halve incidence to get to Goal 1. 2/
What do 20 and 10 cases per 100,000 per day get you, practically? We will still be masking and distancing, for sure. In VT, where reported incidence is currently about 21, in a group of 10 people there is about a 10% chance someone has covid (caveat ahead) 3/
In HI, where reported incidence is 7, that chance is ~4%. In contrast, in CA which is similar to the national average of 43, there is ~21% chance someone in a group of 10 has covid. Whether a 4% chance is low or not is subjective, but it’s better than 21%. 4/
These estimates assume 1 in every 5 cases is diagnosed and estimates are sensitive to this assumption. Source is a risk assessment calculator by @joshuasweitz https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ 5/
I’m not sure when we'll get to 20 or 10 daily cases per 100k. It took us about a month to go from 76 to 43, if that gives you any sense. But as is painfully obvious by now, there are no guarantees that things will improve continuously. They are also very capable of worsening. 6/
Masks, distancing, ventilation, avoiding gatherings, getting vaccinated when eligible. These are the tools we have to continue the long trip down the tall mountain. The variants may throw us a curve ball, but if we keep driving down transmission we can get to a better place. 7/7
