Well, well, well. The IMF published their revised debt sustainability framework for market access cases today, including what might be tacit acknowledgement that the DSAs for Argentina were inadequate from the start. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/02/02/pr2131-imf-executive-board-reviews-imf-debt-sustainability-framework-for-market-access-countries

Focusing only on the central bank aspect, the new framework will now consolidate public sector with the central bank in circumstances when the CB has negative capital and/or large quasi-fiscal operations. Which is pretty much the Argentina case.

Without more detail, it's difficult to be sure that this would have been sufficient for Argentina in 2018, but it is recognition that CB financial position can be important. A mea culpa of sorts, victory for reason. Promised detail on operational implementation will be important.

But considering that the Argentina exchange is only 6 months old, this is important acknowledgement that the DSA the Fund produced last March was inadequate, as it it was in 2018, and as argued numerously then. What does this mean for the Argentina program from here?

Well, hold on a second. The Press Release confirms this will be operationalised by 2021Q4 or early 2022 before which there will be engagement with authorities. Which means if @Martin_M_Guzman wants to keep the Ponzi game going with IMF support, he has to agree to a program soon.

Otherwise, by year-end, when the IMF refinancing is coming due, the DSA will swing against central bank shenanigans and unsustainability and make it harder for the Fund to rollover without seeking additional creditor pain. The clock is ticking. END.

PS. Will be interesting to see if the bonds react. Here's the 10Y international bond from the exchange, which remains above the lows from late Oct. Will investors internalise this new DSA framework?