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County Councils, and their close cousins the Unitary Authority, tend to fly under the radar when it comes to local election coverage. To change this, I'll be doing a Guide to the Shires, going through county by county to see what changes we can expect.
First up, Derbyshire.
First up, Derbyshire.
On paper, Derbyshire is a pretty tenuous hold for the Conservatives. They won 37 out of 64 seats last time, and have since lost a by-election putting them at 36. A net loss of just 4 seats puts them in the minority
First, the 8 seats in High Peak. Last time, the Tories took 6 of them, as seen below.
Labour did well here at the district level in 2019, and put in an above-average performance at the national level. They also have picked up Whaley Bridge in a by-election here.
Labour did well here at the district level in 2019, and put in an above-average performance at the national level. They also have picked up Whaley Bridge in a by-election here.
I think Labour are likely to hold Whaley Bridge, and pick up Buxton North & East. Buxton West is a possibility, but the Conservative vote held up well there in the 2019 locals.
Less so in Glossop, and Labour would be disappointed not to get at least one of the seats.
Less so in Glossop, and Labour would be disappointed not to get at least one of the seats.
Derbyshire Dales is a different story - Conservatives took 4 from 6 and can credibly claim to be on the hunt for more after narrow losses in Wirksworth and Matlock.
However, in the 2019 locals, Labour did well enough in Wirksworth and the Lib Dems did well enough in Matlock that I'm pretty confident the respective incumbents can hang on.
No Conservative held seats are in any jeopardy.
No Conservative held seats are in any jeopardy.
Labour took 7 from 9 seats in Chesterfield, but underwhelming performances in 2019 at the district and national level suggest the mood has shifted against them recently here.
The councillor for Boythorpe & Brampton South lost his seat on the borough council, and I suspect the county seat will flip to the Lib Dems too.
LDs will also go after Walton & West, and stand a decent chance in the well-educated suburban ward.
LDs will also go after Walton & West, and stand a decent chance in the well-educated suburban ward.
Now we get to the really difficult parts of the county for Labour. At all levels of government, North East Derbyshire has slid right these past few years, and Labour cannot hope to hold all five of their seats here after losing control of the district council in 2019.
Both Labour incumbents in Eckington & Killamarsh I think are goners. Clay Cross North could be a tight three-way contest. I'm giving it to the Conservatives, but could see an argument for any of the three main parties.
Labour won all 6 wards in Bolsover last time round. After losing fourteen seats at the district level and Dennis Skinner going down in flames at the general election, there are some major headwinds for this group.
Jim Coyle in South Normanton was the only county councillor to lose his seat at the district level, and I think we'll see a repeat at this level. I've also listed Tibshelf as an independent gain, but this is conditional on Dexter Bullock standing.
Labour have room to grow in Amber Valley, as Conservatives won 8 seats here in 2017. The 2018 and 2019 borough elections saw Labour gains, but that must be balanced against a sizeable swing to the Conservatives in the general election.
Belper is a slam-dunk Labour gain - would be amazed if they don't pick it up. Heanor and Ripley are much tougher than they look for Labour, and could go either way. There is a pathway for Labour to win Duffield, but it probably requires the Green Party not to stand.
Conservatives could also lose a couple of seats in Erewash, having taken 8 from 9 last time round, many of them narrowly.
No evidence of major coaliton shifts here since then.
No evidence of major coaliton shifts here since then.
In a lot of the county wards here that flipped Conservative, Labour borough councillors were pretty easily re-elected in 2019. Makes me think that a less Conservative national environment would see Ilkeston East, Long Eaton and Petersham flip back.
Finally, South Derbyshire. Labour lost a lot of ground here in 2017, but held a lot of it at the district level in 2019.
Based off a strong showing at the district level, I think Labour can take back all three seats in Swadlincote. Aston is within reach, especially if the incumbent steps down. But I think it's just beyond them unless the national environment dramatically worsens for the Tories.
Here's where we stand after all that then - Labour losing seats in the north of the county, but picking up seats in the south.
And this is my best guess for the party position. Liberal Democrats would hold the balance of power, and could enter an administration with Labour or the Conservatives.
This is a dynamic we will likely see in multiple places after the elections this year, so start thinking LDs.
This is a dynamic we will likely see in multiple places after the elections this year, so start thinking LDs.
