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1. The exigency required to engage in the arduous regional diplomacy needed to bring about a political settlement will be eliminated by an open-ended troop commitment. Washington will once again forget about Afghanistan--the proverbial story of the war. https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/02/afghanistan-study-group-final-report-pathway-peace-afghanistan
2. An open-ended troop commitment will leave things at a violent simmer and Afghanistan in the Biden admin's spam folder while it focuses on first order priorities. The regional diplomacy and compromises required to stabilize Afghanistan will be ignored. Status quo will return.
3. The danger in remaining in Afghanistan past May is not only the immediate repercussions of that decision but the unclear and conflicting priorities presented for continued US military involvement in Afghanistan.
4. Many reasons exist for leaving by May. But the most serious proposals for negotiating a one-time withdrawal extension both contain a time limit to achieve optimal conditions rather than the quagmire of a conditions-based withdrawal. The ASG proposal is a recipe for 5+ years.
5. @BRRubin's proposal suggests a one-time regionally negotiated 6 month extension to make up for lost time but accepts that if progress cannot be made in that window, then the US should cut its losses rather than fall back into a counterinsurgency.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/11/biden-can-bring-troops-home-from-afghanistan-the-right-way/
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/11/biden-can-bring-troops-home-from-afghanistan-the-right-way/
6. @LaurelMillerICG's proposal for an extension also includes a time limit but offers the critical acknowledgment that a political settlement and permanent US presence are incompatible.
7. The Afghanistan Study Group report adopts some of these ideas but removes the most critical part--urgency and a time limit.
8. The ASG report contains lessons learned & a palatable restatement of 20 years of failed US policy but it does not provide a solution that is feasible. The Biden team is missing a one-time opportunity to end America's longest war if it follows the path outlined in the report.
