Read on Twitter
Thread on major assessments in USIP Afghanistan study group's report: 1/n https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/02/afghanistan-study-group-final-report-pathway-peace-afghanistan
The group concluded that the threat of direct attacks against the US by terror groups in Afghanistan is for now limited.
In case of complete US withdrawal, transnational terror groups will rebuild capabilities to attack the US homeland in eighteen to thirty-six months.
There are concerns of nuclear weapons falling in hands of terrorists, and that the possibility of a terrorist nuclear attack (by groups in Afghanistan?) can't be entirely ruled out.
AQIS's threat is low:
Taliban haven't broken from al-Qaida, accept assistance from it; recent violence in the country suggests Taliban are disinclined or unable to restrain use of terror.
Despite differing opinions on Taliban fragmentation, the Taliban don't have fatal fissures, and remain the most coherent and disciplined political-military group in Afghanistan.
Pakistan harbors and advises the Taliban leadership based out of Quetta.
IS-KP targets Afghan civilians and would launch attacks on the west it could from Afghanistan.
IS-KP's capacity is constrained due to military pressure.
TTP and Lashkar-e-Taiba are a big problem in addition to al-Qaida and IS-KP.
Instability allows Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed to use Afghanistan as a training ground for attacks against Indian targets in Afghanistan.
China has many interests in Afghanistan but they have not generated significant engagement by the Chinese government. n/n
