Read on Twitter
Inspired by this, let's take a look at what the research says about what we know about displacement and gentrification. https://twitter.com/ChristineOCon19/status/1356997519117549571
"This could exacerbate displacement".
This is an argument that discards our basic knowledge and research. Lots of things *could* happen. I could run a 4 minute mile! It ain't likely.
Will this happen? Honestly, yeah, it will probably happen to someone. I won't pretend otherwise.
This is an argument that discards our basic knowledge and research. Lots of things *could* happen. I could run a 4 minute mile! It ain't likely.
Will this happen? Honestly, yeah, it will probably happen to someone. I won't pretend otherwise.
Will the new policy accelerate displacement more than the status quo?
The available evidence indicates that this change is much more likely to be helpful than harmful.
What available evidence is that? Oh, how I'm so glad ya asked.
Come along with me now.
The available evidence indicates that this change is much more likely to be helpful than harmful.
What available evidence is that? Oh, how I'm so glad ya asked.
Come along with me now.
Let's start off the basics. Housing is a market, and supply and demand are the fundamental drivers.
The market has some quirks and constraints which we need to think about. Some well-intentioned policies can and do accelerate displacement. It's not an Econ 101 market!
The market has some quirks and constraints which we need to think about. Some well-intentioned policies can and do accelerate displacement. It's not an Econ 101 market!
Housing is constrained both by prices and regulation. A house has to interact with the infrastructure of a city, so we put bounds on the speed of growth via zoning.
It can take years for supply to catch up with demand as prices shoot up, assuming anyone is even allowed to build.
It can take years for supply to catch up with demand as prices shoot up, assuming anyone is even allowed to build.
Order Without Design is a textbook by Alain Bertaud that discusses how markets shape cities. Prices are the most important signal that current zoning is constraining supply, and we need to build more, somehow, and that can happen with infill or sprawl.
It should be the task of the planners to best-determine *how* that happens, and not whether it happens.
Trying to plan everything about a city as we go about it now is an exercise in byzantine, Kafka-esque micromanagement.
What does micromanagement lead to? Displacement.
Trying to plan everything about a city as we go about it now is an exercise in byzantine, Kafka-esque micromanagement.
What does micromanagement lead to? Displacement.
Oh look, some discussion on this! https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/understand-citys-pace-gentrification-look-its-housing-supply
A proposal which allows for more-efficient use of our housing stock is not going to lead to displacement.
A proposal which allows for more-efficient use of our housing stock is not going to lead to displacement.
I'd say that our current discouraging of shared is a form of vasectomy zoning. Single units are certainly more profitable to build, but given our current restrictions, why would a developer do anything but small one- or two-bedroom units? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/cities-don-t-use-zoning-to-exclude-families-with-kids
Oh look, more housing -> more affordability. And just a reminder, group living allows for more housing and housing options. https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/307/
...and some more empirical evidence. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0042098020940596
Oh look! Yup. More evidence. https://www.dropbox.com/s/oplls6utgf7z6ih/Pennington_JMP.pdf?dl=0
Now, there's a wrinkle. Upzoning *can* lead to displacement if the upzoning is tightly limited and on highly-accessible land. This is a tricky bit of the difference between permissible and real housing.
Does this apply to group living? Nope. GL applies throughout the city.
Does this apply to group living? Nope. GL applies throughout the city.
The paper behind that wrinkle!
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1078087418824672
And the rebuttal from the author to many popular arguments that cited his paper, because everyone misunderstood (accidentally or willfully). https://thefrisc.com/housing-arguments-over-sb-50-distort-my-upzoning-study-heres-how-to-get-zoning-changes-right-40daf85b74dc
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1078087418824672
And the rebuttal from the author to many popular arguments that cited his paper, because everyone misunderstood (accidentally or willfully). https://thefrisc.com/housing-arguments-over-sb-50-distort-my-upzoning-study-heres-how-to-get-zoning-changes-right-40daf85b74dc
Again, another wrinkle. In general, more-housing -> less displacement, but we do have to consider hyperlocal effects, specifically the nearest 300-meter-radius around new construction. https://www.tonydamiano.com/project/new-con/bbb-wp.pdf
Maybe you're a science-denier and won't be convinced by this.
Let's check in on the representative for our most vulnerable and historically-marginalized communities in Denver:
https://twitter.com/CandiCdeBacaD9/status/1341446773785714689
Oh. Yeah, she's cool with it.
Let's check in on the representative for our most vulnerable and historically-marginalized communities in Denver:
https://twitter.com/CandiCdeBacaD9/status/1341446773785714689
Oh. Yeah, she's cool with it.
So, we have a theoretical framework of more housing -> less displacement, plenty of empirical research to support that theory (with some caveats and nuances), and a status quo that is historically inequitable.
Let's revisit the question again.
Let's revisit the question again.
Will passing these changes lead to more- or less-equitable outcomes?
The evidence and theory sure indicates like we'd be moving in the right direction.
The evidence and theory sure indicates like we'd be moving in the right direction.
Finally, is the original statement borne out of genuine concern for the vulnerable? Or is it rhetorically asking an answerable question that masks personal opposition in the guise of compassion?
You be the judge. And I've left some reading material for ya.
You be the judge. And I've left some reading material for ya.
