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People value CEH way higher right now than they did David Montgomery after his own rookie season. I'm here to say that's a little silly. "Let's dig in" as they say in the biz...
CEH entered with ceiling-busting expectations. He was the only RD1 RB and went to everyone's dream spot, the KC Chiefs with Reid at the helm.
Y1 Clyde:
#21 STD, #22 PPR
181 carries, 803 yds, 4.4 ypc, 4 TDs
54 tar, 36 rec, 297 yds, 1 TD
1100 YFS, 5 TDs
Y1 Clyde:
#21 STD, #22 PPR
181 carries, 803 yds, 4.4 ypc, 4 TDs
54 tar, 36 rec, 297 yds, 1 TD
1100 YFS, 5 TDs
Montgomery had lower expectations as a RD3 guy, but he had CEH's same highway to monster rookie usage as the Bears' only feature back.
Y1 Monty:
#22 STD, #24 PPR
242 car, 889 yds, 3.67 ypc, 6 TDs
35 tar, 25 rec, 185 yds, 1 TD
1,074 YFS, 7 TDs
Y1 Monty:
#22 STD, #24 PPR
242 car, 889 yds, 3.67 ypc, 6 TDs
35 tar, 25 rec, 185 yds, 1 TD
1,074 YFS, 7 TDs
A century of receiving yards and a couple first downs on the ground are all that separates these two guys' rookie seasons, aside from the 2-round valley between them in draft capital.
Monty's rookie year totaled 157 1/2PPR points to CEH's 158.
Monty's rookie year totaled 157 1/2PPR points to CEH's 158.
Given Monty's significantly lower draft value as well as his much less favorable landing spot in Chicago, it's possible to argue that Montgomery had a stronger, more promising rookie season than Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
To draw out this value discrepancy further, Monty ceded numerous carries and receptions to fantasy perennial Tarik Cohen during his rookie season, capping his ceiling. Damien Williams, the man who was SUPPOSED to cap CEH's, opted out in 2020.
Clyde had an 8-lane road to high floor and ceiling rookie RB production with the Super Bowl Chiefs, but he wasn't able to hold off 3rd stringer Darrell Williams and mid-season addition Leveon Bell cutting in. Those two made his rookie season almost identical to Montgomery's.
Clyde had a very unusual preseason which certainly limited his young production, but it's still jarring to see how eerily similar his rookie szn was to everyone's very least favorite, Mr. Monty. Especially when other 2020 rookies have emerged as top 10 dudes.
In Year 2, Montgomery saw a doubled-down workhorse role as the Bears front office and coaches amplified their faith in the sputtering RB. He also enjoyed the receiving uptick with a season-ender from Cohen. This all combined for maybe the cheapest RB6 season in recent memory.
On only 5 more carries (247), Montgomery posted 181 more rushing yards and upped his YPC to 4.33. That IS still lower than Clyde's rookie 4.44. He nabbed 29 more receptions (54) on 33 more targets (68) for 438 yds and 2 scores.
238 1/2PPR points in 20-21, for #6 STD and #4 PPR.
238 1/2PPR points in 20-21, for #6 STD and #4 PPR.
An improved-in-every-way season that saw him finish as a top 6 RB, Montgomery's value as it stands RIGHT NOW is still lower than CEH for some. But CEH's high high draft capital and even more promising situation make his rookie season arguably a bigger disappointment than DM's.
Certainly in an apples to apples setting, we're giving CEH a much longer rope post-Y1 than the dynasty community ever gave Montgomery. Still now, we're hesitant to give the man an ounce of faith even though he obliterated every single category of his Y1 production.
Conversely, we're seemingly giving MORE rope to a guy who fell short of his preseason expectations by a far greater margin. How can we rely on analytics related to 1st round skill positions, especially RBs, if we don't also accurately measure and accept the ones that fall short?
Clyde will compete with Damien Williams next year and likely split carries and targets with him all season. CEH is a fantastic RB who showed exactly how electric he can be, but I think there is a double standard of measurement somewhere when it comes to player expectations/grades
Monty is consistently ranked just above, right next to, or even lower than CEH in consensus lists for all types of league settings. Can we discuss what separates Edwards-Helaire as a buy candidate with more value and potential than Montgomery? Right now, I don't have a reason.
Hope this was interesting to someone. Hope no one completely grills me and sends me packing. Love to all the players. Takeaways:
- BUY the CEH dip (look at Monty, idiots)
- BUY the cheap af top 12 RB (look at Monty, idiots)
- BUY the CEH dip (look at Monty, idiots)
- BUY the cheap af top 12 RB (look at Monty, idiots)
@dynasty_goat @DynastyPrice @MattFFDynasty @DynastyFF_KyleM @DynastyNerds @TripleDFFP @DFF_Dynasty @FantasyFBStoner @FF_Flavortown @ElvinRyan_FF @FFBallAllDay @MetricScout @Maatspencer @TheFF_Educator @MatthewBerryTMR 
love yall
love yall
