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So, this is Michael Gove's letter to the EU over the NI Protocol. Now, I have to say this reads like something written by a newspaper columnist, rather than a serious negotiator. Something to generate an immediate headline. "Gove gets tough with EU" https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957996/2020_02_02_-_Letter_from_CDL_to_VP_S%CC%8Cefc%CC%8Covic%CC%8C.pdf
Why do I say this? Because Gove is trying to pressurise the EU over NI in isolation. Now, the EU made a grave mistake last Friday and those responsible should pay a political price. Like resigning.
But NI is just a small, if critical part, of the future relationship between the UK and the EU. Just ask Scottish fishermen, pork exporters, financial services business, and the rest. And I say this as an Irishman who realises the importance of the Ireland/NI Protocol.
Think upcoming decisions on financial equivalence and data adequacy where the UK is the demandeur. In any negotiation, you have to think across the piece, think of tomorrow as well as today.
And you need to be conscious of all the players in the game. Such as the US. Especially if you are looking for a UK/US trade deal and the US President is a self-conscious Irish-American, protective of the GFA.
And the EU Parliament still has to approve the deal. No Parliamentary approval, no deal. When you see the difficulties with a deal, how much worse would things be with no deal? And the EP is no poodle, fiercely independent and growing in power.
So, it comes down to this. How much of the rest of the TCA and its future economic relationship does the UK want to put at risk to satisfy loud voices in NI?
