Anti-immigrant sentiment is often justified with the claim that a country simply can’t “absorb” more people — there aren’t enough jobs, social supports will be drained.

So what happens when more than 1 million people arrive in a wealthy country? https://www.macleans.ca/economy/what-canada-can-learn-from-germanys-mass-unplanned-migration/

I started looking into this in 2019, after speaking with @PhilTriadafilos about Germany's immigration system.

He brought up a really interesting point: Germany’s open border policy gives us the opportunity to kick the tires on the "absorptive capacity" argument.

I decided to explore the subject from the perspective of jobs because it's a good snapshot that addresses two sides of the debate: that migration can boost an economy, or sink a country into welfare debt.

The perception that “too much” immigration will strain a country’s ability to absorb migrants is certainly not unique to Germany. Canada is seen as managing this concern through its focus on economic migration. And yet, immigrants still face a massive underemployment problem.

Germany offers a window into what can happen when a wealthy Western country undergoes a mass migration *without* assessing the migrants’ potential for the labour market.

This is sort of incredible for anyone interested in immigration to be able to examine.

The open border policy had fallout — social, political and economic.

But when looking at labour market outcomes, a survey by the Federal Institute of Employment Research found more than half of refugees who arrived between 2013-2018 had jobs within five years of arrival.

This is remarkable for two reasons:

1) Aydan Özoğuz, Germany’s then-commissioner for immigration predicted in 2017 up to 75% of refugees would still be unemployed in five years.

2) This was a high-needs population that didn’t plan to move—only 1% spoke German, for instance.

So I set off to answer this question: In a world where migration, especially unplanned movement, is on the rise, what lessons can wealthy nations draw from what went well—and what didn’t—in the German case?

I am so incredibly grateful for the support of the Richard Holbrooke Grant part of the Arthur F. Burns Fellowship program from @ICFJ and IJP, which supported travel and translation costs for this story, and also to @macleans for letting me take on this massive question.