Attachment kills profitability. It took me almost a month to convince myself to sell $SQ (my fav stock), although, it was 2.5x for me & ~$100B cap (too large for my comfort level; I'm into small cap stocks).
It was a very difficult decision to get out of $SQ. I was in a similar situation with $CCIV warrants which I finally sold today at ~$11 (cost avg was $1.5) and reinvested into other sleeper quality SPAC warrants searching for a merger. It was in my Roth account.
If someone sold this one today at its AH (~$14) and reinvested to quality warrants then that person is a genius. From sheer profitability, why getting out at today's AH for warrants was a very good decision? (1) There is no DA for $CCIV and its too too risky at $14, what if..
(2) If deal won't materialize (although a very small possibility) or DA won't come for a couple of days/weeks (definitely a possible scenario) then prices will dip, more % drop for warrants than commons.
(3) Whenever DA will come then I've no doubts that both commons and warrants gonna rally. Then comes the question by how much? Since, the FOMO is strong, so, $50-60 (pre merger) is definitely possible. What will be the warrant prices? Mid 20s (max.; I guess).
That will be 2x from its AH today. For 100% gain (max.), does it make sense to take such a risk? Ask yourself (4) If someone got out today at near AH AND reinvested into sleeper quality SPACS at near $2 (or lower) then his/her probability of higher ROI is significantly higher
than one holding $CCIV warrants right now (5) Post merger, warrants may or may not follow (commons -$11.50) rule, especially, for a high flying stock. A perfect example is $QS (commons AH ~$134; warrants AH ~43). (6) SPAC world is disconnected from real world..
Post merger, fundamentals will play a big role (valuation is one of them). I highly doubt that post merger (in a short term), commons will go as high as $50-60 though I'm confident that in a long run, Lucid gonna do very well.
Summing up, from sheer profitability, it was a good (in fact great) decision to sell $CCIV warrants at today's AH (~14) AND reinvest into sleeper quality warrants. Only risk with this approach is what all warrants you picked to reinvest failed to pick a good merger.
However, if you have done your DD and reinvested into a bunch of quality warrants then most probably you will do (very) well.
PS: This is not a bearish post for $CCIV, I'm ultra bullish about Lucid (if DA will come).
You can follow @ajitosu.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.