During the Cold War, the USSR borrowed heavily from US led financial institutions and imported more than 1/3 of its grain, including from the US, despite running one of the last century’s most repressive regimes that heavily restricted citizens’ rights to travel and immigrate 1/

Yet the US, even during Reagan’s “evil empire” days and much harsher periods when the superpowers stood inched from war, had to engage the USSR & couldn’t pursue a policy of complete isolation. It also abandoned that policy w/ Maoist China b/c it wasn’t sustainable 2/

Now consider Russia today & what’s happening around Navalny. The Kremlin’s trump cards of a nuclear deterrent and energy brinkmanship aren’t going away such that complete isolation is not viable. Some form of Ostpolitik is going to be pursued. 3/

That doesn’t equal engagement per se. It means that a country as vast and geopolitically important as Russia w/ a nuclear deterrent cannot be isolated no matter who is in the Kremlin. Sanctions, shaming and economic distancing will be the line of travel for western leaders 4/

Similar to how Russia was thrown out of the G-8. Projects like Nordstream 2 will become toxic. Most of the Kremlin’s inner circle intriguing for power will be sanctioned. Putin’s Russia will permanently occupy the role of a problem to be contained. No more grand bargains.