The Myanmar generals have always been motivated by power not wealth. Their friends and enemies are all within the country. The rest of the world barely matters. Their creed is nationalism and their dream is to end the country's 75 year old civil war on their terms.

The 2011 transition was to a constitution they had wanted since the early 90s (and the US as well as the NLD had opposed). It wasn't the result of sanctions. What they didn't count on was the continued popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi. The story went off-script.

Broad economic sanctions run the risk of collapsing an economy already in dire straits, destroying the lives of millions of already vulnerable people, fuelling unrest and making the country ungovernable. Targeted sanctions though unlikely to have any political effect.

Any international approach to the present crisis, any hope of some path to democracy, will need fresh thinking, away from the mythologies that dominate most discussion about Myanmar, as well as a real investment in understanding the country's history and political economy.

And any effective international approach will also need to understand the unique psychology of Myanmar's political elites, shaped by decades of violence, isolation, poverty, and oppression as well as the deeply conservative and hierarchical nature of its mainly Buddhist society.

In the early 2010s when things looked like they were going inevitably in a good direction, no one felt the need to do much homework (including on the past efficacy of sanctions) and assumed the best. It's probably time to do a lot of the homework now.