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I have a study in editing showing that the common "Democratic presidents manage the economy better than Republicans" argument is nonsense.
The #1 predictor of GDP/jobs in a presidential term is not party - but rather the unemployment rate on inauguration day. (1/) https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1356635618982379520
The #1 predictor of GDP/jobs in a presidential term is not party - but rather the unemployment rate on inauguration day. (1/) https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/1356635618982379520
Presidents who take office at the top of the biz cycle usually preside over some decline Presidents who take office at the bottom of the business cycle usually ride the natural recovery upwards. And its mostly unrelated to any presidential policy. (2/)
It just happens that over the past 35 years, we've elected new GOP presidents during booms that will eventually end (1988, 2000, 2016), and switched to Dem presidents during or just after recessions (1992, 2008, 2020) in early stages of recovery. Thats the difference (3/)
Anyway, my article will have all sorts of statistics and charts and math on this. But I wanted to respond to the idea that somehow Democrats have some magic formula and Republicans do not. The data is pretty clear that its almost entirely the normal business cycle (4/4)
Going forward, this means that the economy will naturally recover to some degree whenever the pandemic finally ends (regardless of econ policy), and for that President Biden will be hailed as an economic genius.
My paper will also the address the more interesting question of which presidential economies overperform or underperform relative to their place on the business cycle.
