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THREAD: Yesterday, the Myanmar military staged a coup—the first since 1988. The armed forces detained most senior civilian politicians, and went beyond just detaining political figures to detain a wide range of critics of the armed forces. 1/
The army instituted roadblocks, throttled internet traffic, cut phone lines and other types of communication, closed banks, and took control of regional governments and the central government, with power now clearly residing with the army’s top commander, Min Aung Hlaing. 2/
The army may have believed that the coronavirus pandemic, and the ongoing democratic regression in South and Southeast Asia would make it easier to launch a coup with little international pushback—and they may be right. 3/
Aung San Suu Kyi had, as de facto civilian leader of Myanmar, done little to marginalize the military and overall failed to strengthen democracy and create democratic bulwarks in recent years. 4/
With the military using election irregularities as an excuse to seize power, there are several potentially dangerous aftershocks https://on.cfr.org/3pDTgIV 5/
First, the shift in governance could exacerbate the COViD-19 crisis, as people flee the country or migrate to other areas within, spreading the virus. Also, the army’s closure of banks and the uncertainty could cause even more damage to an already-suffering economy. 6/
Second, the coup could lead to an unwinding of deals with ethnic minority insurgencies, who could go back to war, further splintering Myanmar and leading to a massive spike in violence in what is already a conflict-ridden country. 7/
Third, there is a concern that the NLD and its political allies could try and rally Myanmar citizens—who have now lived through a decade of some degree of freedom—to protest the coup, leading to a severe military crackdown, as the military has done regularly in the past. 8/
Not quite two weeks into the Biden administration’s first term, the United States now faces a new crisis in which it and many other outside actors have a limited range of tools to respond. While many in the West have condemned the coup, many regional powers have not. 9/
The United States, Australia, Canada, and the European Union still have limited strategic and economic links with Myanmar, compared to regional countries, and thus overall influence is limited—but that does not mean the United States and partners should do nothing. 10/
Within those limited options, there are still a few steps the United States and partners should take immediately: https://on.cfr.org/2NRpOAV 11/
Primarily, the United States and partners should apply sanctions to Myanmar’s major military holding companies, Myanmar Economic Holdings Ltd and Myanmar Economic Corporation. 12/
The Biden administration should also go well beyond targeted sanctions applied in 2019 against a handful of top military leaders, and use OFAC to greatly expand targeted sanctions to a broad range of military leadership. 13/
Moreover, the Biden administration should pressure U.S. partners in Asia, principally Singapore, to cut off access to Singapore’s financial institutions for anyone on the list of those faced with targeted sanctions. 14/14
