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The Heat are allowing the lowest Shot Quality on 3ptFGA's in the league this season, which so far is a repeat of last year.
There's more to it than that so it's not the end all, but that's important context for why their 3pt D appears to be "worse" in 2021.
There's more to it than that so it's not the end all, but that's important context for why their 3pt D appears to be "worse" in 2021.
(this is consistent across both versions of Shot Quality, one that uses league-average shooting and one that uses player-specific averages.)
It's always tempting, when opponents are throwing up bricks like they did through the first few months of last season, to give a team too much credit for that 3pt%. Same as it's tempting now to assign too much blame, even if the shots haven't dramatically changed.
Doesn't mean they can't be better. Also possible that teams are shooting better in empty arenas, especially when Miami is home. But if you want the difference between a DefRtg of 111.5 (this year) and 109.3 (last year), much of it is teams making more of the same-ish shots.
Other side of the coin is that last year Miami *took* some of the toughest 3's in the league by Shot Quality as compared to league average. That also has carried over, and instead of over-performing on those shots, they've merely been performing.
Next point worth bringing up is that the Heat were 18-18 in the clutch last year despite that pristine 8-1 record in OT. Their elite eFG and TS% marks dropped into the 20's in league rankings down the stretch of close games.
That reversed itself in a huge way in the playoffs, where they were 11-3 in the clutch with absurdly high efficiency.
This year they are 3-7. Can't judge them there at all given who has been out, but %'s have again been low in the final minutes.
This year they are 3-7. Can't judge them there at all given who has been out, but %'s have again been low in the final minutes.
Which is all to say there's a ton of variance at play with the Heat. It covered up a few blemishes on their record last year. Variance played a significant role in getting to the Finals. And it's working against them right now.
For good and bad, it's baked into their profile.
For good and bad, it's baked into their profile.
And that's a profile that has allowed them to beat just about anybody, but also get beat by anybody. Many of the items they have on their list to clean up are things that help grow their margin for error bit by bit, but don't fundamentally change what they can do as constructed.
