RACE ANALYSIS WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS:

Mathieu van der Poel Wout van Aert.

Thanks to the collected timing data by @velofacts.

A thread.

The focus in this analysis is on the most important part of the course: the beach section and the bridge.

Explanation of the sections:
- Beach to Boulevard = 1 to 2
- Boulevard to Bridge = 2 to 3
- Beach Total = 1 to 3
- Bridge (up+down) = 3 to 4
- Beach + Bridge = 1 to 4

Lap 1. Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel take a good start and make no mistakes on the beach. Van Aert is a little faster on the first part of the beach, Van der Poel a little on the second part. First lap in 7:18.

Lap 2. MVDP and WVA are still together on the boulevard. In the second beach section MVDP has to dismount in the sand for the only time in the race (52.9). WVA takes a gap and rides his best bridge time of the race (21.1). MVDP also sets his fastest bridge time (20.9).

The second lap of Wout van Aert goes in 7:13. His fastest lap of the race. Van der Poel is slightly behind after a poor beach section, crashes on the hippodrome (breaks his saddle) and sets his slowest lap op the race with 7:28. He is 15" behind at the finish line after two laps.

Lap 3. Van der Poel wants to keep pressure on WVA and does not change in pit 1. WVA seems to ride away but MVDP rides a brilliant second beach section (not all on TV) in 45.7. Both WVA and MVDP note their fastest time on the beach (128.3 and 125.7), but MVDP is 2.5 sec faster.

After his strong sand passage Van der Poel rides another fast time on the bridge (21.0), 2.7 seconds faster than Van Aert (23.7). In total MVDP reduces the gap on the beach and bridge in lap 3 with 5.28 seconds. But he is still 10 seconds behind.

Mathieu changes in pit 2, and even sets the fastest lap time of the race with 7:11! After a strong beach and bridge section he also rides his fastest time on the technical part. Wout punctures in lap 3, rides 7:30 and passes the finish 4 seconds behind MVDP, on a flat tire.

Lap 4. Van Aert gets a new bike and starts chasing, ~10" behind. On the beach he reduces the gap with 3.9 sec thanks to his best second section (47.7). On the bridge Mathieu clicks out of his pedal and sets his slowest bridge time (22.8), but is still 1.2 faster than WVA (24.0).

Halfway. Van Aert is 8 seconds behind when lap 5 begins. A decisive lap. On the first beach section (77.8) he reduces the gap to 5 seconds and can almost touch MVDP. But in the second section he has to dismount twice and has his worst sand passage of the race (54.7).

On the bridge MVDP flies to the top again (21.4) while WVA (25.6) has to jump on his bike first and loses 4.1 seconds. Afterwards Van Aert says that he forced himself too much in the running section. In total on the beach and bridge WVA loses 3.0 sec and is ~12 seconds behind.

Lap 6. MVDP rides another fast lap: 7:14. He sets his best time (as far data) on the first part of the beach (77.5). Van Aert's first section is even faster (76.3) but he struggles again in the second part and on the bridge. The gap grows again (4.6). On the finish it is 22 sec.

Lap 7. Lap 8. Finish.

Summary: WVA was 5.4 sec faster than MVDP on the beach, on a total time of 17+ minutes. Van der Poel though was always faster on the bridge (up and down) after the beach, 16 sec in total. In total MVDP won 11 seconds in the beach-bridge section.

Thanks to @velofacts for all the data. Check his thread about the race and the docs file for more data of all the riders in the Men Elite race. https://twitter.com/velofacts/status/1355970924147781635