The European Commission and its boss VDL have run into flak over #covid19 vax contracts signed from mid-2020, back when their efficacy was unknown and months before any were authorised for use.

Hindsight, now we're in a 2nd wave - with variants - is instructive....

The UK scored an early success by betting big on @astrazeneca and authorising it with less data than those considered by the @EMA_News

But the UK success so far is measured in 1st jabs... and the 2nd ones have been pushed back beyond what the clinical trials studied

This university study suggests the UK will need to vaccinate 93% of its population to achieve 'herd immunity' (where the R drops below 1) https://www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-even-with-high-vaccine-uptake

(it suggests a lower proportion if the mRNA vaccines are used)

In the EU, there has been that fiasco over AZ which you know about. It was problematic to get the vax ball rolling because the EU had been counting on AZ for most of its Q1 jabs.

It's still demanding those doses (& many EU countries prefer AZ because it's easier to store). But..

..but now some significant EU countries (Germany, France, Austria, Poland, Sweden) recommend the AZ vax for under 65s only because not enough data of efficacy in older people (the EMA puts that, overall, at 60% but higher in under 65s)

What is emerging as the more pressing issue is the variants, from the UK, South Africa and Brazil. There are concerns the http://S.Africa  one has greater immunity to the current vax, prompting the mRNA ones to plan for tweaked booster shots (so 3 jabs in all).

That is where British Prime Minister Boris Johnson did well not to try to score easy political points against Brussels as it screwed up over Art 16 and the NI border as part of its checks to make sure AZ and other vax weren't being taken out of the EU for the UK....

... because with the variants, and the question marks over herd immunity with the AZ vax, the UK may well need access to the mRNA vax made in the EU. The 2nd (and 3rd jab) race may well tilt away from the UK, and Johnson needs to ensure doors aren't closed.

So, VDL and the Commission are taking heat now for what many see as mishandling of the procurement.
But has to be remembered they did it at a time they were blind to authorised future supplies sufficiently effective. And this whole vaccination "race" is going well beyond 1 jab.

And for Europeans (like me) hoping to travel again to somewhere sunny in the near future, there is the whole coming debate about vaccination certificates and tourist lobbies. We've a long way yet to go before this pandemic fades from our conversation.

ENDS