Candidates backed by Brazil’s populist leader Bolsonaro won the top positions in the country’s congress yesterday, strengthening the president as he prepares for reelection in 2022. The results have a series of implications for Brazil's foreign policy and int'l reputation

While Rodrigo Maia, the former president of the Chamber of Deputies, blocked numerous key items of Bolsonaro's right-wing agenda (on issues like the environment, abortion and guns), Maia's successor Arthur Lira will pose fewer obstacles.

That is likely to further complicate Brazil's ties to foreign governments which prioritize the combat against climate change and deforestation, such as the United States and Germany, where the Green party may become part of the governing coalition later this year.

Even if Bolsonaro substitutes his Foreign Minister Araújo and Minister of the Environment Salles (both seen as toxic in the US and Europe), the environmental crisis in Brazil may very well worsen, rather than improve, in the coming years.

Araújo's departure is far from certain bc Centrão politicians, whose insatiable hunger for public funds Bolsonaro will have to satisfy, have no interest in the ForeignMinistry: diplomacy provides no access to pork barrel that lawmakers can spend on public works in their districts

More importantly, however, yesterday's events make clear that "waiting out" Bolsonaro - basically, limiting the relationship to Brazil to the minimum hoping that a successor in 2022 allows for a more constructive engagement - is a problematic option for policy makers in the West.

While an impeachment or the victory of an opposition candidate in 2022 remain a possibility - Bolsonaro's approval ratings have worsened somewhat recently - it would be a very risky bet for foreign policy makers to develop a Brazil strategy that depends on Bolsonaro's departure.