Looks like the UK and Sweden followed similar outbreak patterns in both waves. The UK did noticeably worse under heavy & repeated lockdowns than Sweden did without the same.

Sweden and Belgium - 2 countries with roughly equal populations.

Wave 1 crested at the same time. Wave 2 was earlier in Belgium.

Belgium did significantly worse in both waves.

Belgium also had heavy lockdowns.

Sweden vs. Ireland, showing roughly the same peaks with some variation in height.

Ireland had multiple lockdowns. Sweden did not.

Note that we're still not out of the 2nd wave in any of these countries. But it's still revealing that the non-lockdown Sweden is either on par with or better than what multiple countries with comparable outbreaks saw under lockdown.

Remember that the Swedish strategy needs to only not do significantly worse than its lockdown counterparts to be vindicated, as lockdowns have other unambiguous harms associated with them.