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"Consensus is sometimes right."
Here is rookie ADP (FPTS/G Career Rank (among the guys listed)) over the last five years:
Here is rookie ADP (FPTS/G Career Rank (among the guys listed)) over the last five years:
QBs
2020
1. Joe Burrow (2)
2. Tua Tagovailoa (3)
3. Justin Herbert (1)
2019
1. Kyler Murray (1)
2. Dwayne Haskins (3)
3. Daniel Jones (2)
2018
1. Baker Mayfield (3)
2. Lamar Jackson (1)
3. Sam Darnold (4)
4. Josh Rosen (5)
5. Josh Allen (2)
2020
1. Joe Burrow (2)
2. Tua Tagovailoa (3)
3. Justin Herbert (1)
2019
1. Kyler Murray (1)
2. Dwayne Haskins (3)
3. Daniel Jones (2)
2018
1. Baker Mayfield (3)
2. Lamar Jackson (1)
3. Sam Darnold (4)
4. Josh Rosen (5)
5. Josh Allen (2)
2017
1. Pat Mahomes (1)
2. Mitchell Trubisky (3)
3. CJ Beathard (lmao)
4. Deshaun Watson (2)
2016
1. Jared Goff (2)
2. Carson Wentz (1)
2 out of 17 QBs were drafted correctly.
12%.
1. Pat Mahomes (1)
2. Mitchell Trubisky (3)
3. CJ Beathard (lmao)
4. Deshaun Watson (2)
2016
1. Jared Goff (2)
2. Carson Wentz (1)
2 out of 17 QBs were drafted correctly.
12%.
RB
2020
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4)
2. Jonathan Taylor (2)
3. D'Andre Swift (3)
4. JK Dobbins (5)
Undrafted: James Robinson (1)
2019
1. Josh Jacobs (1)
2. David Montgomery (2)
3. Miles Sanders (3)
4. Darrell Henderson (5)
5. Devin Singletary (4)
2020
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (4)
2. Jonathan Taylor (2)
3. D'Andre Swift (3)
4. JK Dobbins (5)
Undrafted: James Robinson (1)
2019
1. Josh Jacobs (1)
2. David Montgomery (2)
3. Miles Sanders (3)
4. Darrell Henderson (5)
5. Devin Singletary (4)
2018
1. Saquon Barkley (1)
2. Royce Freeman (5)
3. Sony Michel (4)
4. Kerryon Johnson (6)
8. Ronald Jones (3)
9. Nick Chubb (2)
2017
1. Leonard Fournette (4)
2. Christian McCaffrey (1)
3. Joe Mixon (5)
4. Dalvin Cook (3)
6. Alvin Kamara (2)
1. Saquon Barkley (1)
2. Royce Freeman (5)
3. Sony Michel (4)
4. Kerryon Johnson (6)
8. Ronald Jones (3)
9. Nick Chubb (2)
2017
1. Leonard Fournette (4)
2. Christian McCaffrey (1)
3. Joe Mixon (5)
4. Dalvin Cook (3)
6. Alvin Kamara (2)
2016
1. Ezekiel Elliott (1)
2. Derrick Henry (2)
3. Kenneth Dixon (4)
4. CJ Prosise (5)
5. David Johnson (3)
6 out of 26 guys listed here. Doesn't even include some guys like Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, etc. So, inflated.
23% correct.
1. Ezekiel Elliott (1)
2. Derrick Henry (2)
3. Kenneth Dixon (4)
4. CJ Prosise (5)
5. David Johnson (3)
6 out of 26 guys listed here. Doesn't even include some guys like Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, etc. So, inflated.
23% correct.
WR
2020
1. Jerry Jeudy (3)
2. CeeDee Lamb (2)
3. Justin Jefferson (1)
4. Henry Ruggs (5)
5. Jalen Reagor (4)
2019
1. N'Keal Harry (5)
2. DK Metcalf (1)
3. AJ Brown (2)
4. Parris Campbell (4)
5. Deebo Samuel (3)
2020
1. Jerry Jeudy (3)
2. CeeDee Lamb (2)
3. Justin Jefferson (1)
4. Henry Ruggs (5)
5. Jalen Reagor (4)
2019
1. N'Keal Harry (5)
2. DK Metcalf (1)
3. AJ Brown (2)
4. Parris Campbell (4)
5. Deebo Samuel (3)
2018
1. DJ Moore (2)
2. Calvin Ridley (1)
3. Courtland Sutton (3)
4. Anthony Miller (5)
5. Michael Gallup (4)
2017
1. Corey Davis (2)
2. Mike Williams (3)
3. John Ross (4)
4. Zay Jones (5)
5. Juju Smith-Schuster (1)
1. DJ Moore (2)
2. Calvin Ridley (1)
3. Courtland Sutton (3)
4. Anthony Miller (5)
5. Michael Gallup (4)
2017
1. Corey Davis (2)
2. Mike Williams (3)
3. John Ross (4)
4. Zay Jones (5)
5. Juju Smith-Schuster (1)
2016
1. Corey Coleman (4)
2. Laquon Treadwell (5)
3. Josh Doctson (3)
4. Sterling Shepard (2)
5. Michael Thomas (1)
4 out of the 25 listed were drafted accordingly when only comparing with the others on the list.
16%. Incredibly inflated 16%.
1. Corey Coleman (4)
2. Laquon Treadwell (5)
3. Josh Doctson (3)
4. Sterling Shepard (2)
5. Michael Thomas (1)
4 out of the 25 listed were drafted accordingly when only comparing with the others on the list.
16%. Incredibly inflated 16%.
I won't even hurt your feelings with the TEs because it's worse. If you include receivers like Aiyuk, Fuller, Lockett, etc., then the hit rate is 0%.
Overall, 12/68 were drafted correctly. 18%.
So, yes. Consensus is *sometimes* right. But not nearly as much as you think.
Overall, 12/68 were drafted correctly. 18%.
So, yes. Consensus is *sometimes* right. But not nearly as much as you think.
14/68*** messed up the RB one because Antonio Gibson was included at first. But an incredibly inflated 14.
21% when inflating to help consensus? 1/5 hit rate?
21% when inflating to help consensus? 1/5 hit rate?
