Thread alert: This is another thread similar to $SUSHI that I published back in December. I take concentrated bets in coins that I have conviction on. https://twitter.com/Cryptosaurus__/status/1340716783167266816?s=20

Today, I want to talk about $FLOW. I am looking solely at FLOW valuation and see if we can predict a future price based on the data available. N͟o͟t͟e͟ ͟t͟h͟i͟s͟ ͟i͟s͟ ͟f͟o͟r͟ ͟e͟d͟u͟c͟a͟t͟i͟o͟n͟a͟l͟ ͟p͟u͟r͟p͟o͟s͟e͟ ͟a͟n͟d͟ ͟n͟o͟t͟ ͟i͟n͟v͟e͟s͟t͟m͟e͟n͟t͟ ͟a͟d͟v͟i͟c͟e͟.͟

Token Economics:
Total Supply ≈ 1.3B
Circulating supply ≈ 20 M
Current Price (at the time of writing) ≈ $10
Market Cap ≈ 235 M
Genesis Valuation ≈ $125 M
Early backers received the tokens for $0.10

Current supply ( ≈ 20M) is from the rewards of staked $FLOW. Note there is one year cliff before release of any tokens and the circulating supply will only be comprised of rewards.

For the first 5 weeks the rewards will be 20% (annualised rewards) and for the remaining 47 weeks of the year, it will be only 5%. Annual rewards is approx 54 M. That means we should be seeing circulating supply at around 34 M by month 6. And 50M by month 11.

Nbatopshots built on $FLOW has gross revenue of ~$5M/day, $150M per month, $1.8B per year. The protocol earnings are more than anything out there. I believe it will be the defacto standard to develop NFT apps. Viv3, Playchain, Cryptokitties will move to FLOW blockchain.

The opportunities are endless for node operators and stakers. Explains why T-Systems (Deutsche Telekom) have just entered an agreement to operate an execution node for FLOW.

Going back to valuation. If we assume that the protocol apps GMVs goes even closer to what nba top shots, we are looking at a protocol valuation of at least $20 B (considering standard 12x FCF for gaming/esports/digital collectibles space).

With supply of around 30M tokens by 6 months, I expect price of each $FLOW to be $600 in 6 months or so. This may sound outrageous but that is what I am looking at. I may be horribly wrong and I would like to see some other analysis if you are following the NFT space.

I believe most retail FLOW holders right now will take profit and sell the tokens taking their initial investment back (kind of cool). But they would also experience a reward squeeze going forward (5%) and the tokens are being bought and staked by whales at the moment.

Fun starts once all the retail holders have sold their initial large rewards and chase the price. If you bought $FLOW during the initial dump on Coinlist, I would say you are very lucky. I firmly believe, most retail will sell if it happens to go even close to $1B market cap.

Articles I found particularly useful to understand the tech and you can visit here for more information.
https://blog.coinlist.co/a-deep-dive-into-flow-the-blockchain-for-open-worlds/
https://bisontrails.co/flow-protocol-all-nodes-types/
https://blogmaverick.com/2021/01/31/the-store-of-value-generation-is-kicking-your-ass-and-you-dont-even-know-it/

Disclaimer: Writer of this tweet holds $FLOW.