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Read this lucid wonderfully readable article by @liammannix
UK variant (B.1.1.7)
South African variant (B.1.351)
Brazilian variant (P.1)
* Difference between: Mutants, Variants, Strains
* Spike Protein mutations
* Vaccines efficacy https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-do-new-variants-of-the-coronavirus-mean-for-us-20210126-p56wuo.html
UK variant (B.1.1.7) South African variant (B.1.351) Brazilian variant (P.1)* Difference between: Mutants, Variants, Strains
* Spike Protein mutations
* Vaccines efficacy https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-do-new-variants-of-the-coronavirus-mean-for-us-20210126-p56wuo.html
Best article I’ve seen yet
See those orange dots?
That’s the Kent B1.1.7 variant taking over
Seeing the timetable of events (esp late Nov alarm growing at the prevalence of the spike drop out samples tested and that, on 13th Dec we had 21,991 cases ) promoted another look.
See those orange dots?
That’s the Kent B1.1.7 variant taking over
Seeing the timetable of events (esp late Nov alarm growing at the prevalence of the spike drop out samples tested and that, on 13th Dec we had 21,991 cases ) promoted another look.
Worth bearing in mind now that At the end of the Nov lockdown on 3rd Dec, moving into tiers we had 15,654 cases (by specimen date).
A couple of days at 12/13k & up it went to 21k
33k by 15th December but Johnson doesn’t want to cancel Christmas.
47k by 21st Dec
81k by 28th Dec
A couple of days at 12/13k & up it went to 21k
33k by 15th December but Johnson doesn’t want to cancel Christmas.
47k by 21st Dec
81k by 28th Dec
It also flags what happens when you expose the virus to low levels of antibodies. It is more likely to mutate as it has. That has happened in lab conditions in 3 months
So PREVALENCE drives that condition.
So PREVALENCE drives that condition.
The burning question for us in the UK is whether 1-shot of vaccine with an extended interval will also drive it or whether the antibodies one shot delivers are more powerful than that.
The horns of the dilemma. Such high prevalence that hospitals are overrun & deaths piling up
The horns of the dilemma. Such high prevalence that hospitals are overrun & deaths piling up
Hence driving the one shot decision. Get as much immunity as poss in as many people as poss as quickly as poss to drive down prevalence.
But will it be enough to do that without giving birth to another mutation that escapes the vaccine?
But will it be enough to do that without giving birth to another mutation that escapes the vaccine?
I get the dilemma. Each decision bears risks.
But this is why I am very keen to see interim data as we go, not wait for the 12 week experiment to end and then see whether or not it works.
But this is why I am very keen to see interim data as we go, not wait for the 12 week experiment to end and then see whether or not it works.
BUT I think that we owe it to the world, having introduced B1.1.7 Kent variant into it, to make sure that we aren’t creating condition for more viral escape.
That can be done through prevalence.
That can be done through prevalence.
BUT Let’s make sure that antibody production is high throughout the extended interval period (both vaccines) and sustained enough to not create the second condition driving viral escape and be prepared to reverse ferret mid way through if immunity drops.
There’s approximately 500k December 1 dose Pfizer vaccine patients. How are they comparing to the similar 2 dose Pfizer patients (some getting their second shot early to mid January) ?
I hope we see some data this week.
I hope we see some data this week.
