Taliban firmly believes that they are meeting all the conditions of the US-Taliban agreement. The only sticking point is Al-Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan.
The Taliban have agreed to prohibit AQ from #AFG & surprisingly, Al-Qaeda did endorsed this agreement.

[THREAD]

1/n

Them both being in the same page is evident enough, that the Taliban genuinely want Al-Qaeda to leave Afghanistan. The problem is that (is usual) the Taliban miscalculated Al-Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan.
AQ might want to abandon Afghanistan but realistically speaking...

2/n

... for Al-Qaeda leadership, leaving Afghanistan will be very tough & time consuming , and Al-Qaeda will be hesitant to leave Afghanistan prior to the US meeting its part of the commitment (complete withdrawal of foreign forces).

3/n

Now after 11 months of US-Taliban agreement, under Biden administration, the fate of the US-Taliban agreement is in doubts, neither are Taliban prisoners released nor are Talibans names removed from the blacklists but the US is demanding something...

4/n

... (RiV & ceasefire) that were not in the US-Taliban agreement but were rather assumptions.

One should understand that Taliban leadership is in a tough position, they have to calculate every decision & policy, to please both, their lower ranks and the...

5/n

... exasperated international community. With the fate of the agreement uncertain, Taliban leadership had no choice but to set forth their position on the May deadline.

Taliban know their core strength lies with their mid level military commanders.

6/n

In regards to any public statements, their foremost & main audience are their militants in Afghanistan. Through these statements they communicate with their militants & through these statements, they present their position on certain policies. As Andrew Watkins states...

7/n

...”Once they do, these are not easily changed.”

For Taliban ranks, any compromise on the US withdraw will be perceived as weakness & betrayal. In regards to May 1 deadline, the Taliban will not accept any unilateral decision by Biden administration.

8/n

Again, as Andrew Watkins accurately says, “The first big deadline might not be May; it could be right now. If US does not engage Taliban on issue of withdrawal soon, the group might posture themselves out of negotiating room”.

[END].

@and_huh_what