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UPDATE: After today's @ONS data, the latest estimate for the number of excess deaths in the UK linked to coronavirus is
115,300
Note that 50,000 of these have happened in the second wave, so don't let anyone say death numbers are normal
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115,300
Note that 50,000 of these have happened in the second wave, so don't let anyone say death numbers are normal
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The one thing that is true is that in the second wave, excess deaths (compared with the 5 year average) are lower than the count of deaths wihtin 28 days of a positive test and coronavirus mentions on death certificates
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There are two valid interpretations of this
1) Some would have died anyway eg from flu in a normal year. See @d_spiegel
2) Now we're better at preventing flu with social distancing the 5 year average is wrong, so excess deaths is an underestimate @statsgeekclare
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1) Some would have died anyway eg from flu in a normal year. See @d_spiegel
2) Now we're better at preventing flu with social distancing the 5 year average is wrong, so excess deaths is an underestimate @statsgeekclare
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These are normal debates about something which isn't known - the counterfactual (what would have happened without Covid). It will take time to have a clear view on this
The invalid interpretation is that the excess deaths are not much to worry about
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The invalid interpretation is that the excess deaths are not much to worry about
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Better news is that the daily profile of excess deaths appears to be falling too
ENDS
ENDS
