Dubious claims from USDP and military about 'electoral fraud', complaints about the Union Election Commission must be seen in this context. Basically, these guys naively designed their own political game and now are FURIOUS they cant win in all the ways they want 10/

This is where the toxic element of ambition comes in. Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing must retire this year. Whereas leaders of old dictatorship took respectable positions in 'civilian' gov between 2010- 2016 as President, Speakers of Parliament - he has nowhere to go 11/

After a career working his way up the ranks and blithely commanding atrocities, the current political system has little to offer him and older generation of Tatmadaw (they've few travel/posting ops abroad given their war crimes) 12/

So now he has seized power, will military really hold it for one year only? The question rests on their approach to the 2008 Constitution. They could *maybe* get away with tweaking a few things (like the electoral system) which help the USDP and ethnic parties win seats... 13/

But if they treat the 2008 Constitution as sacrosanct, and push on with bizarre claims of voter fraud (which is the justification for the coup), then Myanmar is in for a bumpy, bloody and possibly long ride- right in the middle of the worst economic downturn in decades 14/

To wrap up, the #Myanmarcoup is a cautionary tale. Regimes that rely on coercion & loyalty tend to overestimate their popularity, and make terrible decisions about how to govern. This creates tremendous instability and destroys the lives of ordinary people 15/

For Myanmar activists the only option now is to pile on pressure in hope Myanmar's military leaders put aside ambition and see that a rapid return to quasi-democracy - probably with a few tweaks - is the best path forward for everyone 16/

For internationals, the best we can do is support ongoing scrutiny of the coup from within Myanmar. So SUBSCRIBE to outlets like @FrontierMM and donate to @Myanmar_Now_Eng https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/donate  17/17