Maybe it's just the insomnia talking, maybe it's the frustration with the refusal of certain elements to engage in serious and rigorous investigation and analysis of data used to justify policy choices, but I think it's time we came up with a RULES FOR EXPERTS guide.

Rule 1 of the Rules for Experts Club:

You talk about the Rules for Experts Club.

Right now, the word "expert" is uttered with sneering mockery, well-deserved at that. The whole industry is a disgrace of unaccountable ignorance and arrogance pretending as expertise.

Rule 2: Bring the receipts. Let the whole world see them.

If you don't have the data or aren't willing to show it, you're a waste of time, not an expert.

Rule 3: If your expertise sounds just like a set of political talking points, you're a hack, not an expert.

Rule 4: If your model isn't deterministic or can't be run both forwards and backwards and accurately match historical data, or you need to rig your algorithm extensively to make such a match, it's a wild guess and not a fit basis for policy preference.

Rule 5: If rhetorical fallacies, including calls to authority, are your method of argumentation, you're not an expert, you're a jerk.

Rule 6: Don't assume your audience is stupid or can't do the math.

The bigger your audience the more likely to encounter someone smarter than you and more experienced, and the more likely you are to get called out on it.

Rule 7: If you don't have a clear and concise argument backed up by data, you don't have an argument, you have an opinion.

There's a about opinions - just like Terry McAuliffes, everyone has one. Without clear and concise argument there's no reason to favor yours.

Rule 8: Certainty levels matter.

Any expert who expresses certainty in something that cannot mathematically be certain is a charlatan.

Rule 9: Not all assumptions are true. If you haven't run the numbers you are not professing expertise but speculation.

Any assumption that has not been put to the test and survived is inherently unreliable.

Rule 10: Nobody cares about the letters by your name and that your daddy had the luxury of indulging you while you spent a dozen years in college to get them.

Plenty of people with those letters who will happily get paid to lie, and the world is tired of their deceptions.