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Explaining the rationale of all MLS player sales today through my "9 Zones of Selling Players", a thread.
1) Reynolds to Roma for $8.5m - Reynolds Zone.
The namesake's deal: RBs are relatively easy to replace, Reynolds is a HG but was on salary cap. Great money. Easy call.
1) Reynolds to Roma for $8.5m - Reynolds Zone.
The namesake's deal: RBs are relatively easy to replace, Reynolds is a HG but was on salary cap. Great money. Easy call.
2) Rodriguez on loan to Almeria w/ purchase option - Reynolds Zone
Rodriguez's potential's sky high evident by his int'l performances & age. His MLS performance is very good, but short of elite yet, though nobody would doubt he'd get there.
So why a loan?
Rodriguez's potential's sky high evident by his int'l performances & age. His MLS performance is very good, but short of elite yet, though nobody would doubt he'd get there.
So why a loan?
The answer is in two parts. Unlike Reynolds, where you're making profit + allocation immediately since he's a HG, Rodriguez, you're going to have to recoup his original transfer fee ($8m), pay 30% sell on and his salary above max threshold (close to another $1m)
In other words, while Reynolds gets max allocation at $1m and everything else above that is (very expensive) gravy, LAFC has to sell Brian Rodriguez at $13-14m to make max allocation.
Second problem, is that as long as Rossi & Vela are playing, Rodriguez .. is likely not.
Second problem, is that as long as Rossi & Vela are playing, Rodriguez .. is likely not.
Its hard to convince a team to fork over $15m for a player that can't start for you. Solution? Loan him in a place where he's going to shine with eyeballs. He *should* run rampant in the second division of Spain.
Would be curious to see what the purchase option is, but anything
Would be curious to see what the purchase option is, but anything
south of $15m would be surprising, but the short term loan theoretically makes sense.
3) Daryl Dike to Barnsley on loan, $20m option to buy - Reynolds/Adams Zone.
Dike should be in the Reynolds zone: his potential is sky high, but his numbers are below best XI. But you can
3) Daryl Dike to Barnsley on loan, $20m option to buy - Reynolds/Adams Zone.
Dike should be in the Reynolds zone: his potential is sky high, but his numbers are below best XI. But you can
forgive ORL for thinking he's just about to hit the Adams Zone. In fact if you follow their last star striker they drafted - Cyle Larin, Dike would be in the Adams Zone as a top top striker next year.
Top strikers are hard to find. And ORL lost Larin for well below market value
Top strikers are hard to find. And ORL lost Larin for well below market value
after holding him too long and the player forced a move.
Not this time. As Dike is moving forward to an elite caliber player, this loan makes a ton of sense. Dike can show his talent in a very visible Championship side. If he makes noise, he's not going to go for cheap like Cyle
Not this time. As Dike is moving forward to an elite caliber player, this loan makes a ton of sense. Dike can show his talent in a very visible Championship side. If he makes noise, he's not going to go for cheap like Cyle
If he doesnt or even underwhelms, all good - he's got time to come back to MLS and progress with ORL and get featured in the NT.
The goal here is not to lose Dike for cheap like Larin ... especially if he makes the leap we think he can & I think this approach does that.
The goal here is not to lose Dike for cheap like Larin ... especially if he makes the leap we think he can & I think this approach does that.
4) Paul Arriola to Swansea loan, no option - Hwang Zone
Arriola is a good player both for DC and USMNT. He's just not elite. He's young, but just not that young. So hence, the Hwang Zone.
So normally this is where you want to extract the most value, but you're also okay keeping
Arriola is a good player both for DC and USMNT. He's just not elite. He's young, but just not that young. So hence, the Hwang Zone.
So normally this is where you want to extract the most value, but you're also okay keeping
them, since they are above average as well. Normally, there's a number that makes it worth while but this time its a loan.
DC and Swansea sharing owners definitely helps. It also makes sense to be able to recall him as needed. But I dont think this happens without shared owners
DC and Swansea sharing owners definitely helps. It also makes sense to be able to recall him as needed. But I dont think this happens without shared owners
5) Kaku to Saudi (reportedly $3.5m?) - Hwang Zone
In 2018, Kaku was certainly in the Reynolds Zone as being the key attacking player in a top RBNY side. But much like the Rodriguez financials, RBNY couldn't cash in due to sell ons and original transfer fee paid. So when
In 2018, Kaku was certainly in the Reynolds Zone as being the key attacking player in a top RBNY side. But much like the Rodriguez financials, RBNY couldn't cash in due to sell ons and original transfer fee paid. So when
Club America inquired, RBNY's number was around $10m (required to make the full allocation) and no deal was done.
Fast forward two years, Kaku's production slipped nor has he made an impact on the Int'l stage. Hence the potential has gone down as well.
This is now simply recoup
Fast forward two years, Kaku's production slipped nor has he made an impact on the Int'l stage. Hence the potential has gone down as well.
This is now simply recoup
what you can and open a DP slot and for Kaku to get the payday he was looking for.
Its the danger of buying with sell ons in MLS ... it makes it much harder to sell for profit.
6) Rossi doesnt go - Adams Zone
The Adams Zone is all about players you know are out, but its gonna
Its the danger of buying with sell ons in MLS ... it makes it much harder to sell for profit.
6) Rossi doesnt go - Adams Zone
The Adams Zone is all about players you know are out, but its gonna
hurt the team. You do have to make up original fee ($3m) and salary, but its not that much. LAFC will definitely make their full allocation.
But when you lose an MLS Best XI player that's also very high potential, you have to get as much as possible.
What's that for Rossi? LAFC
But when you lose an MLS Best XI player that's also very high potential, you have to get as much as possible.
What's that for Rossi? LAFC
thinks it should be in the $20m range and when Bryan Reynolds goes for $8.5m, you can see why.
So when Reading offers around $1.5m loan fee + $11m-ish option to buy, I can see why LAFC turns that down quickly. Atlanta wouldn't loan Almiron before selling. Neither would
So when Reading offers around $1.5m loan fee + $11m-ish option to buy, I can see why LAFC turns that down quickly. Atlanta wouldn't loan Almiron before selling. Neither would
Vancouver with Davies. These were players already at a high level with international acclaim with high potential. Rossi is in the same boat.
Still LAFC have to be careful. We've expected Rossi to move for 3 windows running. This will be his 4th season and its reasonable to think
Still LAFC have to be careful. We've expected Rossi to move for 3 windows running. This will be his 4th season and its reasonable to think
Rossi isn't going to re-sign. To avoid a Cyle Larin situation, LAFC will have to sell in the next window and they're hoping for the transfer market to rebound a bit by then.
7) Aaron Long doesn't go - Long Zone.
Sigh. A year after having a Premier League and Ligue 1 offer
7) Aaron Long doesn't go - Long Zone.
Sigh. A year after having a Premier League and Ligue 1 offer
spurned, it seems RBNY said no to a Championship loan and there were brief Liverpool (!) and Schalke rumors that didn't pan out.
The Long Zone, is the hardest zone. Its a very high performing player but doesn't have the growth runway of an Adams or Davies. They are worth
The Long Zone, is the hardest zone. Its a very high performing player but doesn't have the growth runway of an Adams or Davies. They are worth
a lot in MLS and are hard to replace, but what you get for them abroad isn't worth it. And often you find where Aaron Long is ... stuck.
The Jordan Morris - who's in the same zone - situation offered a blueprint. A loan (ideally with a fee) + a very high purchase option. Best
The Jordan Morris - who's in the same zone - situation offered a blueprint. A loan (ideally with a fee) + a very high purchase option. Best
case - they kill it and you cash in at a level you wouldn't be able to do with just MLS on your resume. Worst case, you still make some money and get your player back that you never wanted to lose.
Long's new manager, Struber, might've been a wrinkle but it'll be interesting to
Long's new manager, Struber, might've been a wrinkle but it'll be interesting to
see why RBNY said no this time. Last time, Long's performance dropped. And this time, Long has a year left + club option left on his contract.
Worst yet, is the reputation you build with other potential players. Perhaps there's an agreement with Long, but still ... sigh.
Worst yet, is the reputation you build with other potential players. Perhaps there's an agreement with Long, but still ... sigh.
