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Why you should take advantage of Joe Mixon's dynasty ADP drop.
Why you should take advantage of Joe Mixon's dynasty ADP drop.
Arguably the most polarizing player in fantasy-land, Joe Mixon left a bad taste in a lot of fantasy owners' mouths. After missing 10 games last year due to a foot injury, many folks said "never again" after spending high draft capital. Don't be that person. Things are looking up.
Addressing the o-line:
After Burrow's torn ACL and Mixon's YPC struggles, Cincinnati has already made moves to help bolster that line. They've brought back Frank Pollack. Pollack has previous experience with some of the linemen rostered, & is beloved by many in the locker room.
After Burrow's torn ACL and Mixon's YPC struggles, Cincinnati has already made moves to help bolster that line. They've brought back Frank Pollack. Pollack has previous experience with some of the linemen rostered, & is beloved by many in the locker room.
Pollack only coached one szn in 2018 for the Bengals before leaving. That year, Mixon broke out & rushed for 8 TD's and 1,186 yards on 4.93 YPC. Cincinnati allowed the 11th fewest sacks, and jumped from 31st in rushing in the NFL to 21st, despite being 26th in rush attempts/game.
Zac Taylor has already put Pollack 1st in command in coordinating the run game. The Bengals had lots of injuries to their already struggling line in 2020. The last coach, Jim Turner was awful. Didn't get along with players. Penei Sewell could be there for them at 5th in the draft
Two "lost" seasons:
Despite arguably the worst O-line & no Pollack, Mixon still managed a RB13 PPR finish in 2019. It truly was the tale of two halves. In his first 7 games, he averaged a putrid 9.32 PPR ppg. Unacceptable for a player drafted in the 1st/2nd round. However...
Despite arguably the worst O-line & no Pollack, Mixon still managed a RB13 PPR finish in 2019. It truly was the tale of two halves. In his first 7 games, he averaged a putrid 9.32 PPR ppg. Unacceptable for a player drafted in the 1st/2nd round. However...
In his last 8 games of the 2019 fantasy season, he averaged an impressive 17.61 PPR ppg, which would've been the 8th highest average for RB's this year. To top it off, he torched the Browns in week 17 to the tune of 162 yards & 2 TD's on 26 carries at 6.2 yards per carry.
He finished the year with 103 evaded tackles (1st among RB's), a 32.9% juke rate (4th) and 576 yards created (2nd). He's still the talented workhorse you drafted him to be. Now, onto 2020. Much like 2019, Mixon had another sluggish start to the szn. But not as bad as you think.
2020 season:
Excluding his monster 40 pt game against the Jags, Mixon averaged a mediocre 11.3 PPR ppg. Dissapointing, no doubt. However, people refrain from mentioning the truly brutal schedule he faced. Here are his first 6 opponents' ranks in fantasy points allowed to RB's:
Excluding his monster 40 pt game against the Jags, Mixon averaged a mediocre 11.3 PPR ppg. Dissapointing, no doubt. However, people refrain from mentioning the truly brutal schedule he faced. Here are his first 6 opponents' ranks in fantasy points allowed to RB's:
LAC: 17TH
CLE: 27TH
PHI: 22ND
JAX: 3RD (boom game)
BAL: 20TH
IND: 21ST (14.9 pts in < 2 Q's)
With Mixon's tendency to start slow & this tough stretch, it makes sense he'd only have a 10 pt floor in these games. Also, only 2 of these teams are in his division. Now, the injury...
CLE: 27TH
PHI: 22ND
JAX: 3RD (boom game)
BAL: 20TH
IND: 21ST (14.9 pts in < 2 Q's)
With Mixon's tendency to start slow & this tough stretch, it makes sense he'd only have a 10 pt floor in these games. Also, only 2 of these teams are in his division. Now, the injury...
Nobody knew it at the time, but Mixon's season was over halfway thru week 6. This was the straw that broke the camel's back. As a result, many are fading Mixon & most turn their nose up at the thought of acquiring him. We must take advantage. The risk is now minimal.
Mixon's workload:
Despite minimal success through 6 weeks, Zac Taylor showed unwavering confidence in Mixon and got him plenty of touches. With only 1 game with less than 20 touches (still had 19), Mixon was on pace for a whopping 323 rush attempts, good for 2nd overall.
Despite minimal success through 6 weeks, Zac Taylor showed unwavering confidence in Mixon and got him plenty of touches. With only 1 game with less than 20 touches (still had 19), Mixon was on pace for a whopping 323 rush attempts, good for 2nd overall.
Mixon also had a very solid receiving role. His last 3 games' target totals: 6, 8, and 2 in the first 2 quarters before being injured. Taylor was finally utilizing Mixon like the prolific receiving weapon he was in college. It was happening. Gio was officially on the back burner.
His pace would've seen him end the szn with 74 (!!!) targets. He was top 8 in snap share and top 2 in opportunity share. Mixon is under contract for 3 years on an ascending offense with no competition and a top 5 workload under wraps. And don't forget, Pollack is back in town.
And please, if you're still worried about Gio, wake up. Zac Taylor did. Gio played less than 20% of snaps in Mixon's last 3 games. He wasn't in on 2 minute drills. The Bengals can save $4.7 million in cap if they trade/cut him. Cap they can use to help that offensive line.
Dynasty ADP:
According to FantasyPros, Joe Mixon is leaving draft boards as the RB18. I've done 2 startups this year, and Mixon fell to the late 4th andmid 5th as the RB19 and RB21 respectively. This...is absurdly cheap. He will never cost less. THIS is the time to acquire.
According to FantasyPros, Joe Mixon is leaving draft boards as the RB18. I've done 2 startups this year, and Mixon fell to the late 4th andmid 5th as the RB19 and RB21 respectively. This...is absurdly cheap. He will never cost less. THIS is the time to acquire.
I'm not saying to overpay for him, or hold him until his contract is up. He turns 25 after training camp. 1-2 year rental. He's poised to smash his ADP & perform at low-end RB1 levels. And you can get him at an absolutely insane discount. Play the market.
There's much less risk involved this time around. His floor will be there. When he performs at a high level and people stop the out-of-control hating, you sell and reap the benefits. You must stay one step ahead. Swallow your pride and make the most of this opportunity.
