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There’s some confusion about the meaning of the word “effective” in the vaccine trials. I tried to clear it up in today’s edition of The Morning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html
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Start with this question: What’s our goal with the coronavirus?
Our goal is to turn it into a normal flu. We are not aiming to eliminate it. (We’d fail.) Once it becomes a normal flu, life can go back to normal – school, work, eating out, gathering with friends.
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Our goal is to turn it into a normal flu. We are not aiming to eliminate it. (We’d fail.) Once it becomes a normal flu, life can go back to normal – school, work, eating out, gathering with friends.
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As @ashishkjha says: “I don’t actually care about infections. I care about hospitalizations and deaths and long-term complications.”
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When you hear an effectiveness number about a vaccine trial (like 66% for J&J), it’s not measuring the vaccine’s success at achieving our goal – of turning the virus into a nuisance. It’s measuring the elimination of *all* illness. Which, again, is not what we care about.
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So far, every vaccine to report public results – AstraZeneca, J&J, Moderna, Novavax, Pfizer – appears to be almost 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. We still need to see more data to be sure that pattern lasts. But...
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... the vaccine news so far is extremely encouraging.
It’s far better than much of the public discussion makes it seem.
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It’s far better than much of the public discussion makes it seem.
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“They’re all good trial results,” @cmyeaton says. “It’s great news.”
And: “The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” @JuliaLMarcus writes: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/giving-people-more-freedom-whole-point-vaccines/617829/
And: “The vaccines are poised to deliver what people so desperately want: an end, however protracted, to this pandemic,” @JuliaLMarcus writes: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/giving-people-more-freedom-whole-point-vaccines/617829/
And, yes, this includes the variants (although we definitely need to see more data).
“People are still not getting serious illness. They’re still not dying,” @RebeccaWurtz says.
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“People are still not getting serious illness. They’re still not dying,” @RebeccaWurtz says.
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“This variant is clearly making it a little tougher to get the most vigorous response that you would want to have,” Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said. “But still, for severe disease, it’s looking really good.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/health/Covid-vaccine-explainer.html
Bottom line: “In terms of the severe outcomes, which is what we really care about, the news is fantastic,” @AaronRichterman says.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/briefing/vaccination-myanmar-coup-rochester-police.html
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