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Short data thread: Making the first pass out of transition.
I have used a very small sample size of data for this and I haven’t done anything extraordinary with it. The purpose here was to hopefully inspire further analysis by people more skilled than me.
Background: In my football experience, I’ve heard phrases like “Connect the first pass!” a lot and seen people place tremendous value on completing the first pass in transition.
The situation these ideas connect to is when one team wins possession and is trying to keep the ball as opposed to giving it straight back. Now, why would a lot of emphasis be placed on this specific action?
Obviously, it’s good to complete passes, but there are some clear benefits to completing the first pass after winning possession. One would be to avoid counterpressing. If you can make that first pass, especially playing it to a different area of the pitch than where the...
... previous actions were taking place, you help prevent your side from being counterpressed and giving the ball to the opposition in an even more dangerous position than they had it in immediately.
Another benefit would be allowing your team to rest and regroup. Even completing one pass before maybe booting it long can provide time for communication and organization. If it leads to sustained possession, that supplies an oppurtinity to regain energy.
Lastly, and all these things definitely intertwine with one another, that first pass can spring an attack for your team.
If the opposition has pushed players forward and maybe taken a risk and lost their shape, there can be open gaps for a progressive pass to spring a dangerous counter.
Theoretically, being able to complete the first pass in transition can reflect a player’s quality and intelligence too. If they are able to make that instant switch from focusing on defending and winning the ball to scanning and picking out a teammate, that’s pretty impressive.
Data: Now for what I attempted data-wise to try and quantify some of these situations. I used all of Barcelona’s La Liga matches so far this season, besides the match against Atlético Madrid, which I accidentally excluded. So, that’s 19 matches, or half of a league season.
From those matches, for a pass to qualify as the first pass in transition it needed to have been preceded by a successful tackle or interception by the same player. So, if a player made a successful tackle or interception then played a pass, it qualified.
The parameters can definitely be adjusted. It doesn’t have to be the same player making the ball-winning action and then playing the pass, you can look at the second and third passes in transition too, etc.
But I went with that basic methodology here because it made things more simple. With that in mind, what trends did I find in this limited data?
To start off, I ended up with a total of 150 qualifying passes. So, around 8 times per match, a player made a successful tackle or interception, then that same player played a pass.
Did the limited data support the notion that playing the first pass out of transition is more difficult than playing a typical pass?
Pass completion rate on non-transitional passes: 84.42%
Pass completion rate on transitional passes: 75.33%
Pass completion rate on non-transitional passes: 84.42%
Pass completion rate on transitional passes: 75.33%
Do these transitional passes reflect quality?
Based on the table and underlying metrics, Barcelona are better than the majority of La Liga teams they face. To try and gain some insight into quality, I simply compared Barcelona’s performance in these passes to their opponents'.
Based on the table and underlying metrics, Barcelona are better than the majority of La Liga teams they face. To try and gain some insight into quality, I simply compared Barcelona’s performance in these passes to their opponents'.
Transitional pass completion rate:
Opponents: 71.43%
Barcelona: 80.30%
Opponents: 71.43%
Barcelona: 80.30%
Net possession value gained per transitional completion:
Opponents: +0.168%
Barcelona: +0.183%
Opponents: +0.168%
Barcelona: +0.183%
I think looking at who has completed the most of these passes is interesting too. For Barcelona, Frenkie de Jong came out on top, while Pedri was just behind. The opposition player who made the most was Sevilla’s Joan Jordán - a very good midfielder.
Like I said, I haven’t done anything deep at all here, but there is some interesting stuff in my opinion. From the limited data, the increased difficulty of connecting these transitional passes seems to be reflected.
Furthermore, the ability to complete transitional passes and play them in a progressive manner seems to be a somewhat decent indicator of quality on the ball.
I feel there are so many more things that can be done with this concept. Finding out who the best players and teams are across multiple leagues in these situations. Looking for trends in the types of transitional passes teams like to play - where they look to spring counters.
You can also go all the way to the end of the sequence. Does completing an effective transitional pass have any impact on the chance of the ensuing possession resulting in a shot or goal? Are there optimal locations on the pitch to transition into?
As I said before, the purpose of this thread was to get an idea out there and hopefully spark something in the mind of someone more skilled analytically. If anybody ends up looking into this concept, please let me know what you find!
