1/ The bluechecks can scream all they like.

But the Israeli trends are awful compared to countries with fewer vaccinations - like the US.

Since early January, the US rate of positive tests is down 35%, hospitalizations 28%, ICU beds 20%. And the declines are accelerating...

2/ In Israel, the rate of positive tests is about 50% than it was in early January and the number of "serious cases" is 45% higher. (The Israeli vaccination was remarkably fast and targeted - by Jan. 8, 70% of Israelis over 60 had received at least one dose.)...

3/ Now you can argue the US was further along in its Farr's Law curve than Israel - BUT THE POINT OF VACCINATIONS IS TO ALTER THE NATURAL COURSE OF THE EPIDEMIC AND SPEED ITS END. Right now, Israel provides NO evidence mRNA vaccines do so. Maybe it will in a few more days...

4/ In just the last couple of days Israel has seen some declines in the number of new serious cases - though no fall in test positivity. But given the natural course of the epidemic, cases SHOULD be dropping by now. The surprise will be if they don't...

5/ This does not mean vaccines don't reduce mild or moderate cases in generally healthy people (at the cost of serious side effects for many). We have evidence for that. That's what the clinical trials proved. BUT THEY PROVED NOTHING MORE...

6/ And the Israeli experience TO THIS POINT offers no evidence that on a population-wide basis they are helpful. If anything, the opposite. Hopefully that will change, and very soon.

Hope isn't evidence.