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1/A LOT of critically important charts in this week's #DirtyDozen.
I cover growing trend fragility, a monthly sell signal, discuss why this *isn't* a major top buy why we should expect a 1-2 month correction to begin w/in the next few weeks, plus more.
https://macro-ops.com/a-major-monthly-sell-signal-dirty-dozen/
I cover growing trend fragility, a monthly sell signal, discuss why this *isn't* a major top buy why we should expect a 1-2 month correction to begin w/in the next few weeks, plus more.
https://macro-ops.com/a-major-monthly-sell-signal-dirty-dozen/
2/ High euphoria = high trend fragility
-Record net 19% FMS investors raking greater risk
-FMS cash level at 3.9% triggering a 'sell signal'
-Global Risk-Love in 97th %-tile going back to 1987
-Asia/EM Risk-Love signaling "euphoria" for 1st time since 2015
-Record net 19% FMS investors raking greater risk
-FMS cash level at 3.9% triggering a 'sell signal'
-Global Risk-Love in 97th %-tile going back to 1987
-Asia/EM Risk-Love signaling "euphoria" for 1st time since 2015
3/ “Two-month flows into DM and EM equity funds the highest since [Oct 2000]. November alone saw the highest monthly inflow into global equity funds on record. Also over a three-month horizon, we’ve now seen the highest inflows into equity funds on record” via BofA $EEM
![3/ “Two-month flows into DM and EM equity funds the highest since [Oct 2000]. November alone saw the highest monthly inflow into global equity funds on record. Also over a three-month horizon, we’ve now seen the highest inflows into equity funds on record” via BofA $EEM](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtJijm2XUAYmHvi.png "3/ “Two-month flows into DM and EM equity funds the highest since [Oct 2000]. November alone saw the highest monthly inflow into global equity funds on record. Also over a three-month horizon, we’ve now seen the highest inflows into equity funds on record” via BofA $EEM")
4/ Asia ex-Japan Risk-Love indicator’s Euphoria / Bearish Signal implies weak 6-month forward returns in Asia/EM.
5/ $IYT triggered a sell signal in Jan.
Dec's Doji (yellow) gave us a sell setup. Jan's Outside Bear Bar closed on its lows & gave us a sell signal. But, the strong bullish thrust of the preceding 8 bars means this pullback will likely be bought after a 1-2m pullback.
Dec's Doji (yellow) gave us a sell setup. Jan's Outside Bear Bar closed on its lows & gave us a sell signal. But, the strong bullish thrust of the preceding 8 bars means this pullback will likely be bought after a 1-2m pullback.
6/ But, investors who continue to try and call a top will once again be disappointed…
The economic backdrop is not one you want to fade. 92% BofA’s proprietary suite of growth indicators “are flagging a Bullish/Neutral signal, the highest level on record.”
The economic backdrop is not one you want to fade. 92% BofA’s proprietary suite of growth indicators “are flagging a Bullish/Neutral signal, the highest level on record.”
7/ BofA writes “The last 3 decades have not witnessed this combination of animal spirits and a system flush with liquidity. All regions across the world are, at present, privy to surplus free liquidity — currently growing at 55% YoY in the US (highest on record since 1980.”
