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The coup in Burma is partly a self-coup that, on the face of it, doesn't make much sense, as the system designed by the military has been working pretty well for them, even with an elected NLD that has given ample proof that doesn't threat their interests. (1/n)
Discussions about the "legality" of the move are beside the point. Law in contemporary Burma is a very flexible excuse that basically serves to give a thin veneer of legitimacy to the naked use of power and domination... (2/n)
...they will do whatever they want and then they will interpret the very same law they have designed in whatever way serves them to justify what they have done. So this is basically an sterile debate: it's not about the law, it's about power. (3/n)
But the Tatmadaw already had power without the coup. With the information currently available, it's difficult to see a rational reason why the military would be basically dismantling the system they have built, it has served them well and it's not immediately threatened. (4/n)
Lacking the missing pieces of the puzzle that we may get later and that may explain why this seemingly absurd coup is going on now, I would venture two (highly tentative and probably wrong) explanations for it, the first "rational", the second "irrational": (5/n)
1) The military indeed plans to restore a civilian government after one year, thus making a show of force to remind everybody who's ultimately in charge, further tame the NLD, but also to present itself as the "protector of the constitution",... (6/n)
...this may work and planned or (most probably) not, but it's a "plan" of sorts. (7/n)
2) The military got caught in a spiral of its own making once they started to complain about (unproved) irregularities in the election. The NLD wasn't willing to give an inch on that and, out of sheer stubbornness, the military took the issue to its ultimate consequences. (8/n)
In Burma, and elsewhere, the most momentous decisions often have little to do with rationality and are made for the most stupid of reasons. This may well be the case (9/9)
