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THREAD: Did yesterday's state-sponsored violence on the streets of Moscow, Petersburg and other cities fundamentally change the relationship between the state and its subject? 1/
A new pattern is readily apparent: Navalny returns to Russia after an assassination attempt and gains moral power. Average citizens take to the streets and are beaten. They gain the same moral power. 2/
Something important is happening before our eyes: the regime is overreacting and in the process it is undermining the foundations of its authority over and support within society as a whole. That is the key lesson of what happened in Belarus last year. 3/
The Soviet leadership faced similar threats on a much smaller scale from dissidents like Andrei Sakharov. Their moral righteousness slowly eroded the regime even though the masses, like now, were inert and apathetic. 4/
As I discussed with @baunov and @lizafokht last Friday, the regime is already demonizing its opponents as subversives and agents of hostile Western powers. Such messages will resonate with the loyalists who are the backbone of popular support for Putin 5/
In a new piece, I explain “Putin’s brutal actions and his willingness to resort to police batons have polarized society and radicalized those who are dissatisfied with his rule. In a sense, the battle now is for the apathetic majority.” https://carnegie.ru/commentary/83769 END
