Mass electrification of cars makes most sense as part of a decarb of the entire energy system. So we imagined a 2030 where all U.S. cars are EVs, renewables have grown fast and coal power goes to zero (2/7)
Our starting point is LLNL's Sankey diagram of U.S. energy flows in 2019. Roughly 100 quadrillion BTUs of primary energy "consumption" where 2/3s is wasted as heat (3/7)
About a third of that waste relates to transport. Almost 4 out of every 5 gallons of gas just taxes your radiator rather than turning wheels. EVs, meanwhile, convert roughly 3/4 of plug-power to useful energy (4/7)
The energy system of 2030 is transformed. Despite a bigger economy, primary energy consumption drops 13%. Useful electricity becomes roughly 50/50 gas/non-fossil. The key to all this is a massive drop in wasted energy (5/7)
Roughly 14 quad-BTUs of oil is replaced by 4 quads of power in transport. Wasted energy drops by 16 quads overall - more than the entire amount of electricity we use today. EVs and renewables actually save us more than an entire grid-worth of energy (6/7)
CO2 emissions drop by almost 30%; oil consumption by almost a third. These benefits help offset some of the massive investment that would be required. But the overall efficiency gain makes a compelling case for EVs to take over (7/7)
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