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It's too early to say much about what the coup in #Myanmar means for the #ICJ litigation brought by #TheGambia concerning alleged #genocide against the #Rohingya. These are some very initial thoughts; others will have better insights into the politics of this situation. 1/10
The military coup in #Myanmar does not end the #ICJ case, which can continue as long as #TheGambia wants it to continue (subject to any jurisdictional challenge by Myanmar). But will post-coup Myanmar continue to participate in the case or will it refuse to appear? 2/10
Refusal to appear in an #ICJ case is always regrettable but it doesn't end the case. #TheGambia can submit evidence & arguments. The ICJ can decide in its favour but must independently assess whether those claims are ‘well founded in fact and law’ (ICJ Statute, art 53.2). 3/10
Another question: Will Myanmar’s outside counsel, notably William Schabas, continue to represent Myanmar? Schabas, a genocide expert, has been criticized extensively for taking part. Whatever one thinks of that choice, will he want to continue given ASSK’s forced removal? 4/10
At the provisional measures phase, Aung San Suu Kyi defended the #Tatmadaw re genocide, while conceding some human rights abuses took place. She tried to persuade the #ICJ (w/out success) that sufficient internal accountability mechanisms in #Myanmar exist and are working. 5/10
However grossly insufficient those internal accountability processes may be in #Myanmar, it bears asking whether they will now stop entirely under military rule. Perversely, this may enhance the strength of some of The Gambia’s claims at the #ICJ. 6/10
The military coup in Myanmar is bad news, whatever one thinks about #ASSK, her government, and her apparent failure to prevent the abuses inflicted upon the #Rohingya. I am not in a position to opine on what it reveals about the NLD-Tatmadaw relationship. 7/10
The military coup does not change or erase what took place in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017. But these new developments may make the already challenging prospect of the ICJ case leading to meaningful redress for the #Rohingya even more difficult. 8/10
This underlines the fact that the #ICJ case has never been a silver bullet that, on its own, can resolve the plight of the Rohingya. The ICJ case and other judicial processes need to be understood as part of broader diplomatic-political processes aimed at reform. 9/10
